Monday’s NBA Experts Picks: Our Staff’s Favorite Bets for Spurs vs. Rockets, Mavericks vs. Bucks
Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: San Antonio Spurs guards Patty Mills (8) and DeMar DeRozan (10).
There are seven games on the NBA schedule for Monday night and our experts are betting two specific matchups:
- 8 p.m. ET: San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets
- 8 p.m. ET: Dallas Mavericks at Milwaukee Bucks
See what bets they’re making below.
Odds as of Monday afternoon and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
John Ewing: Mavericks at Bucks
- Spread: Bucks -11
- Over/Under: 227.5
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
Bucks (24-3) and Mavs (17-8) have been two of the best teams in the NBA this season. Tonight’s matchup was supposed to pit the reigning MVP, Giannis Antetokounmpo, against a strong candidate for this season’s award, Luka Doncic. Unfortunately, Luka suffered an ankle injury and is out indefinitely.
Oddsmakers opened Milwaukee as 11-point favorites against the Luka-less Dallas squad. This is the 41st time the Bucks have been double-digit favorites since last season — the most in the NBA. Milwaukee went 23-14-3 (61%) ATS in the previous 40 games.
In the Doncic era, the Mavericks are 56-40-1 (58%) ATS when he starts and 5-5 ATS without him per Bet Labs.
History suggests the Bucks can cover as big favorites and that the Mavs will struggle without Luka. NBA expert Justin Phan agrees as he has already made Bucks -11 one of his best bets.
With history and Phan on Milwaukee, I feel confident backing Giannis & Co.
John Ewing is 517-454-19 (53.2%) overall betting on the NBA. You can follow him in our free app.
The PICK: Bucks -11
Brandon Anderson: Mavericks at Bucks
Which player would you rather build your NBA team around for the next decade, Antetokounmpo or Doncic? That’s the question we were going to be staring at all night on NBA TV until Luka got injured over the weekend and is out indefinitely. Now this game is a potential snoozer with a big line.
So exactly how many points is Doncic worth to the Mavericks? Too many. It’s a brutal ask to play your first game of the season without your MVP candidate on the road against the actual reigning MVP and a team currently on an 18-game winning streak. Ten of those wins have been by double digits, including seven of the past eight.
Thankfully, we have all next decade to watch these two play. Milwaukee rolls tonight.
The PICK: Bucks -11
Rob Perez: Spurs at Rockets
- Spread: Rockets -10
- Over/Under: 233
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
The Spurs are having a historically poor season (for the Spurrs, that is), but don’t let that distract you from the fact that they’re not that bad. If you ask anyone from the city about the team it will sound like a five-alarm fire. I promise you it’s not.
LaMarcus Aldridge has been atrocious, DeMar DeRozan is doing everything he can to get traded, and yet they’re only one game back from a playoff spot. They rank 15th in offensive rating, 22nd in defensive rating — we could sit here and argue the advanced analytics all day — but I’m taking the Spurs tonight for a couple of reasons:
- The victory in Mexico City vs. Phoenix was one they can use to turn around their season. It doesn’t matter how they got there, the Patty Mills game-winner was a huge morale boost and an effort they can build off of. You better believe that momentum is going to carry to their next contest.
- I can’t trust the Rockets as far as I can throw them. They go up 20 and down 20 what feels like once a game. Gregg Popovich has always had the book on Harden, and it shouldn’t be any different tonight. He’ll force someone else to beat them and lord knows who that might have to be.
I would not be surprised whatsoever if the Spurs win this straight up. Can’t believe I just typed that in 2019.
The PICK: Spurs +10