Monday’s NBA Expert Picks & Predictions: How Our Staff is Betting 76ers vs. Raptors, More

Monday’s NBA Expert Picks & Predictions: How Our Staff is Betting 76ers vs. Raptors, More article feature image
Credit:

Adam Hagy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Toronto Raptors forward Pascal Siakam (43).

We have another loaded Monday slate of NBA games with 11 games total and seven that start before 8 p.m. ET. Our experts have their eyes on two games specifically:

  • 7 p.m. ET: Memphis Grizzlies at Indiana Pacers 
  • 7:30 p.m. ET: Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors 

See how our crew is betting tonight’s slate below.

Odds as of Monday at 2:30 p.m. ET

Wob: Grizzlies at Pacers

  • Spread: Pacers 9.5
  • Over/Under: 217
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET

We have ourselves a battle of wills. The Indiana Pacers want to be a giant pothole in the middle of the freeway, and the Memphis Grizzlies want to take their brand new Ferrari out for a spin.

The Pacers come into tonight’s game with the fourth-slowest pace in the league giving up the fifth-fewest amount of points. The Grizzlies enter as the fifth-fastest-paced team scoring the 17th most amount of points.

Here’s the catch, though, and why I’m on the under: despite the Grizzlies’ pace and points per game standings, they are the least efficient offense in the NBA. 30th. Dead last. They are reckless. The Grizz just fire terrible shots early in the shot clock, run an incoherent offense, and defer to Ja Morant to do something special.

Expect a veteran, blood-thirsty-at-all-times Pacers defense to sink its claws into the pace of this game and prevent the havoc the Grizzlies want to inflict. This game will look like the 90s, as will the score.

The PICK: Under 217
[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

John Ewing: 76ers at Raptors

  • Spread: 76ers -1.5
  • Over/Under: 211.5
  • Time: 7:30 p.m. ET

76ers-Raptors is one of the most bet games on Monday’s slate. The total has seen some interesting action. More than 60% of bets are on the over but the line has moved from 214 to 211.5.

When the line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages this is called reverse line movement and is an indication of sharp action. It has been profitable to follow reverse line movement unders, especially in division games.

Since 2005, teams betting games that match this strategy have gone 329-231-6 (59%). A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $8,348.

The Raptors (106.1 PPG) and 76ers (105.1 PPG) both rank in the top 10 in points allowed to opponents this season. Despite being two of the better defensive teams, the public loves the over. But this is a matchup where the under is the smart play and the pros agree.

The PICK: Under 211.5
[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Brandon Anderson: 76ers at Raptors

The 76ers have been waiting a long time for this one, though somehow not quite as long as it took Kawhi Leonard’s shot to bounce four times on the rim before finally falling and changing the course of NBA history last May.

Fans in Philadelphia are absolutely certain they were one unlucky bounce away from being NBA champions (conveniently forgetting that Giannis Antetokounmpo character, but sure), and that means the Raptors stole their ring.

Leonard won’t be playing tonight, of course. Neither will Danny Green, nor Kyle Lowry or Serge Ibaka, both still out injured. The Sixers get their return to Toronto, but it’s a newer more upstart team awaiting them.

Philly took Pascal Siakam totally out of his element last spring and dominated this team physically and mentally, outside of Leonard. Joel Embiid and the Sixers are at their best when they’re at peak motivation, and they’ll be ready for this one.

The PICK: 76ers -1.5
[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

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