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NBA Expert Betting Picks (Tuesday, Jan. 28): Best Bets for Knicks vs. Hornets, Suns vs. Mavericks

Credit:

Barry Gossage/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Devin Booker (1) of the Phoenix Suns.

There are nine games on Tuesday’s NBA schedule and our experts are betting the spread, over/under and moneyline on these specific matchups:

  • 7 p.m. ET: New York Knicks at Charlotte Hornets 
  • 7 p.m. ET: Golden State Warriors at Philadelphia 76ers 
  • 7:30 p.m. ET: Atlanta Hawks at Toronto Raptors 
  • 8 p.m. ET: Washington Wizards at Milwaukee Bucks 
  • 8:30 p.m. ET: Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks 

See the three bets they’re making below.


Odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.


Matt Moore: Knicks at Hornets

  • Spread: Hornets -1.5
  • Over/Under: 208.5
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET

The Knicks have covered five straight and are 15-10 ATS under Mike Miller. They’re on the road vs. the Hornets, who are under .500 (8-9) as a home favorite this season, are having their worst month defensively of the season and are somehow worse vs. the East in Net Rating (-9.1) than vs. the West (-5.1).

I dread this, honestly. It’s the Knicks, and betting on or against them this season has been sheer torture. But I just cannot find any reason why the Hornets should be favored in this spot, despite a better record and better overall metrics.

Heaven, help me.

PICK: Knicks +1.5

Bryan Mears: Suns at Mavericks

  • Spread: Mavericks -6
  • Over/Under: 227
  • Time: 8:30 p.m. ET

The Mavs are on the second leg of a back-to-back here and have traveled quite a bit over the past week with three road games.

But most importantly, I’m curious to how they’ll perform the rest of the season with Dwight Powell out for the year. I think he’s a pretty underrated player given his pick-and-roll prowess and ability to stretch the defense as a lob threat. With Luka Doncic operating the offense, that player archetype — like with LeBron James — is incredibly important.

That’s not really Kristaps Porzingis’ role; it doesn’t suit his game, and he clearly prefers to pick-and-pop out on the perimeter. Further, the Mavs have been limiting his minutes lately given his injury concerns. They did sign Willie Cauley-Stein to fill in Powell’s role, but I’m unsure he’ll be able to.

The Mavs played fine last night without Powell, although they faced a Thunder team that surprisingly played without Chris Paul. The Mavs offense didn’t exactly dominate, but the Thunder just couldn’t get anything going on that end either, so the Mavs stole a win on the road.

It’s hard to give concrete data on the Mavs without Powell given that his minutes were so tied to Luka’s. Per Cleaning the Glass, the offense has dropped in eFG% by a stunning 4.2% without Powell, but that largely mirrors Luka’s numbers, again. We’ll see over time whether my hypothesis — that Powell is an underrated part of this offense, which relies on space for shooters — is correct.

The Suns aren’t a great team, but they can be frisky, and they’re playing their main guys — Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton — absolutely huge minutes right now, pushing them to 40 on most nights.

They’ve actually been underrated on the road this year, going 13-8 ATS in that situation. They’re 15-9-1 ATS this season as an underdog. The Mavs, meanwhile, have a positive ATS record this season overall, but they’re just 9-14-1 at home. They’re definitely a public team in that situation, and already we’re seeing 58% of bettors take them. For what it’s worth, 82% of the money is on the Suns tonight.

Given all of those reasons, I like the Suns to cover the number here, but I would wait for Injury news. I like the Suns +6 without Porzingis or back at 7.5/8 if he’s active. Also keep an eye on whether Ricky Rubio suits up; he’s currently probable.

The PICK: Suns +6 (pending injury news)

Brandon Anderson: Bucks, Raptors, Sixers ML parlay (-257)

I look at the slate tonight and I see three games I can lock in, all of them from Eastern Conference double-digit favorites playing at home.

The Bucks are 40-6 overall, 21-2 at home and basically untouchable against bad teams. The Wizards are more fun than we expected, but that doesn’t mean they’re not bad. The Hawks are definitely bad, and they hit the road for Canada against the defending champions who are finally getting healthy again. The Warriors are the worst of them all, visiting the Sixers in Philadelphia where it shouldn’t matter whether Joel Embiid (questionable) plays or not.

Just keep this simple. These are three of the worst teams in the NBA on the road against three of the best. I’m seeing moneylines right now around -775 for Milwaukee, -850 for Philly, and -1000 for Toronto. Parlay them all and you can turn a nice easy evening profit at around a -250 moneyline parlay. We all deserve an easy night.

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