Tuesday’s NBA Experts Picks: Our Staff’s Favorite Bets for Nuggets vs. 76ers, Knicks vs. Trail Blazers

Tuesday’s NBA Experts Picks: Our Staff’s Favorite Bets for Nuggets vs. 76ers, Knicks vs. Trail Blazers article feature image
Credit:

Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New York Knicks forward Julius Randle (30).

There are just four games on the NBA schedule for Tuesday night and our experts are betting totals, spreads and props in all four matchups:

  • 7 p.m. ET: Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets
  • 8 p.m. ET: Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat 
  • 8 p.m. ET: Denver Nuggets at Philadelphia 76ers 
  • 10 p.m. ET: New York Knicks at Portland Trail Blazers 

See what bets they’re making below.


Odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.


Matt Moore: Wizards at Hornets

  • Spread: Hornets -2
  • Over/Under: 229
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET

The Wizards are categorically the most-fun bad team this season, and one of the most fun I can remember. They run weird stuff, like Davis Bertans-Moe Wagner pick-and-rolls, Bradley Beal is just trying stuff, they have shooters everywhere, they move the ball and score from everywhere.

The Wizards are fifth in jump-shot efficiency off the dribble (per Synergy Sports), sixth at the rim on non-post-ups and sixth on catch-and-shoots. You name the way, they can get buckets. Even with a horrible defense, they are outrageously fun.

The Hornets, meanwhile, are inefficient on both ends. They give up a ton of points — 113.9 per 100 possessions, fourth-worst in the league (the Wizards are the worst by almost three whole points!). They also can’t score, though, ranking 22nd offensively with 106.3 points per 100 possessions.

The Wizards have been good this season against the spread at 12-9, including 7-4 ATS on the road.

I was curious to see if teams that were great offensively but also terrible defensively were undervalued on the road vs. bad defensive teams. Turns out, they are (per Bet Labs):

So that’s a 64% win mark for teams with offensive and defensive efficiencies above 100 facing a team with a defensive efficiency above 110. Those teams also have gone 33-19 ATS against teams with an offensive efficiency under 110, including 21-12 last season.

The Wizards aren’t good, but their offense is, and as a short road favorite I’m in on them.

The PICK: Wizards -2

Matt Moore is 634-633-16 (50%) overall betting on the NBA. You can follow him in our free app.

[In New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Indiana or West Virginia? Bet now at FanDuel]

John Ewing: Hawks at Heat

  • Spread: Heat -8.5
  • Over/Under: 218.5
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET

Trae Young is a natural scorer. The second-year pro is averaging 28.8 points per game, fourth-most in the NBA.

While Young is known for getting buckets, he also averages 8.4 assists and 4.1 rebounds per game this season.

Tonight the Hawks are in Miami to take on the Heat. Oddsmakers have set Young’s over/under for rebounds at 3.5. According to HashtagBasketball, the Heat have allowed 6.2 rebounds on average to opposing point guards.

The FantasyLabs player prop tool projects Young to snag 4.6 rebounds on average in tonight’s game. The over for 3.5 rebounds has a bet quality rating of 10 out of 10.

Young is always expected to score but he can sneaky grab boards. Look for the point guard to go over his rebounding prop on Tuesday.

The PICK: Trae Young over 3.5 rebounds

John Ewing is 509-451-19 (53%) overall betting on the NBA. You can follow him in our free app.

[In New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Indiana or West Virginia? Bet now at FanDuel]

Brandon Anderson: Denver at 76ers

  • Spread: 76ers -4.5
  • Over/Under: 208.5
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET

Tonight’s national TV game between the Nuggets and 76ers looks pretty tasty at first glance. Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic battle for big man supremacy, while two of the league’s top contenders face off in Philadelphia. Both of these teams would’ve ranked near the top of most League Pass rankings at the start of the season.

But Denver hasn’t been the team anyone expected. They’re winning games, sure, but they’re doing it by slowing the game to a snail’s pace and playing tough defense, with the league’s second best defensive rating and the third slowest pace. Philly also has a top-five defense and a below average pace.

Maybe that’s why these teams keep hitting unders.

The Nuggets are is 15-6 to the under, including 7-3 over their past 10 and on the road. The Sixers 14-9-1 to the under, including 7-2-1 over their past 10. These teams just keep going under, and this game may be slow and aesthetically unpleasant.

The public is going the other way, already betting this line up from 205.5 to 208.5. If you wait until tip, you might even lock in 209 or 210. It’s never fun betting the under, but that doesn’t mean it’s not the right play.

The PICK: Under 208.5
[In New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Indiana or West Virginia? Bet now at FanDuel]

Rob Perez: Knicks at Trail Blazers

  • Spread: Trail Blazers -9
  • Over/Under: 223
  • Time: 10 p.m. ET

Why do I continue to do this to myself? And even worse, why do I drag you, an innocent reader, into this pit of Knicks misery and despair?

Because the Portland Trail Blazers should not be favored by nine points against any formation of professional basketball players on planet earth. That includes the Washington Generals and the New York Knicks.

Believe it or not, the Knicks actually … dare I say … looked good against the Indiana Pacers. If you disregard the fact they are the league’s worst free throw shooting team, whose best player is shooting 66% from the line and can’t make one under pressure, they made covering look easy!

Nobody is expecting the Knicks to win games, but boy they do a great job of inventing new ways to lose at the buzzer. You know what that means? Everyone continues to bet against them and gives us even more points.

Once again: the Knicks will lose this game, probably in devastating fashion, but most importantly, they will cover.

The PICK: Knicks +9
[In New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Indiana or West Virginia? Bet now at FanDuel]