NBA Finals Player Prop Picks: Bet LeBron James to Dominate Game 3 (Sunday, Oct. 4)
Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: LeBron James #23 of the Los Angeles Lakers during Game 1 of the NBA Finals.
- With the Miami Heat trailing 2-0 NBA Finals we can expect some big scoring performances.
- Reed Wallach is betting scoring props for the Heat and Los Angles Lakers in Game 3.
- See his picks and analysis for tonight's best player props below.
Looking for Tuesday’s player props? Click here.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll, especially in the NBA postseason. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
|Bet Quality Grade||Win-Loss (Win Pct)|
|Bet Quality of 10||775-572 (57%)|
|Bet Quality of 9||942-776 (54%)|
|Bet Quality of 8||1432-1263 (52%)|
Sunday’s player props come from Game 3 of the NBA Finals:
- Los Angeles Lakers vs. Miami Heat at 7:30 p.m. ET
NBA Player Prop Bets
Miami Heat, Jimmy Butler
The Prop: Over 24.5 Points (-110)
With likely no Goran Draigc or Bam Adebayo once again — make sure to check our FantasyLabs Player Tracker for updates — the burden falls on Jimmy Butler to produce at a high level for the Heat. In Game 2, he was able to keep the Heat within striking distance with a 25 point, 13 assist and eight rebound performance.
In a similar situation in Game 3, I expect more of the same from Butler. While his assist prop has been juiced up, I’m paying the vig on his scoring total because I see the Heat wing keeping his aggressiveness at an all time high and hunting free throws. He shot 11-of-12 from the free throw line in Game 2, and it’s reasonable to expect a similar mark Sunday.
I also lean toward the over on Butler’s points, rebounds, and assists props if your books release those. I would play that at any number below 38.5 as Butler is going to need a complete performance for the Heat to have a fighting chance at getting this game.
Los Angeles Lakers, LeBron James
The Prop: Over 28.5 Points (-106)
LeBron James has been at the peak of his powers in this series. With Anthony Davis dominating with his size, James has dismantled the Heat’s zone with pin point passes and easy buckets.
He scored 33 in Game 2 shooting 14-of-25 from the field and 3-of-8 from the 3-point line. With any sort of a Heat comeback hinging on a Sunday victory, I expect to see LeBron eclipse 30 in Game 3 and keep chugging along towards his fourth title.
Similar to the Butler handicap, I will be playing James’ over points, rebounds, assists up to 48.5 in case LeBron opts to play facilitator tonight. Anyway you slice it, the duo of James and Davis need to clear 60 points for a Lakers win, and I expect James does the heavy lifting tonight to put an exclamation point on this series.
Los Angeles Lakers, Rajon Rondo
The Prop: Over 9.5 Points (+110)
Another points prop? Yes.
The question this series has become centered around is whether the Heat outshoot the Lakers because they can’t get stops. Well, the Lakers’ role players have answered by scoring at will.
The final iteration of Rajon Rondo’s career may be “Spot Up Rondo.” He is shooting 44% on 3-point attempts on more than three a game this postseason. If the Heat stay in a zone, James and Davis will continue to swing the ball quickly and find the open man, and this is a low enough total where one or two open looks makes the difference in this one.
Rondo has been aggressive getting his shots as well, not afraid to take it to the rim. Facing an outmatched Heat team, the Lakers have been trying to push the pace and get easy buckets in transition. With Rondo pushing the tempo, he has gotten a few easy layups in the process.
Rondo scored just seven points in Game 1 and hit on one of his five 3-point attempts, so Game 2’s 16 point outburst may be an outlier, but I still find that this prop is underselling Rondo the shot hunter. Our projections have Rondo right at this number so I’ll ride the momentum.