NBA Injury Report: Betting, DFS Impact of Devin Booker, Pacers Injuries
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Devin Booker
- The NBA Injury Report is a daily piece that runs through the slate's key injuries and their betting and DFS impact.
- There are two key teams with injuries to analyze on Tuesday night: the Phoenix Suns and Indiana Pacers.
- This piece will detail the impact of the injuries to Devin Booker, Myles Turner and more.
There are eight games tonight with several injuries and questionable players. We’ll analyze two games in this article: the Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers and the Sacramento Kings at Phoenix Suns.
Injuries: Myles Turner (shoulder), Darren Collison (leg) and Cory Joseph (thigh) are questionable.
Injury background: Turner missed Sunday’s game and Monday’s practice because of a sore right shoulder. Coach Nate McMillan called it a stinger.
Joseph was visibly limping during Sunday’s game after taking a knee to the right thigh, and he also did not practice Monday.
Collison’s injury has no reported origin yet. He’s been diagnosed with a sore right leg.
Tonight’s impact: Domantas Sabonis started both games Turner missed this season, and Kyle O’Quinn shifted to backup center. In the three games he’s played at least 17 minutes, O’Quinn has posted 32.0, 37.0 and 29.75 DraftKings points. He’ll be a chalky value play at $3,500 on DraftKings and FanDuel if Turner is unavailable.
News regarding all three injured Pacers should be announced prior to the 7 p.m. ET tip, and if Turner does play, he may offer solid value on low ownership while O’Quinn falls out of the main rotation.
When the Pacers have been favored by double digits since last season, Turner has supplied a team-best and FantasyLabs’ +7.88 DraftKings Plus/Minus and exceeded salary-based expectations in nine of 10 contests, per the Trends tool.
Collison and Joseph haven’t missed a game this year, and Joseph possesses the third-longest active consecutive games played streak at 151.
Collison and Joseph are rarely on the court together, as Joseph is Collison’s backup, but even if either is unavailable, the matchup against the team with the worst record in the NBA may depress minutes team-wide and allow McMillan to stretch his rotation.
Tyreke Evans would likely tally more minutes if neither guard plays, and he or Joseph would be favorites to start sans Collison.
Point guards have been solid plays against the Cavs this season, especially after Collin Sexton moved into the Cavs’ starting lineup full-time. Since the beginning of December, point guards projected for at least 20 minutes have averaged 32.18 DraftKings points against the Cavs — the second-highest mark.
While Victor Oladipo may share facilitating duties with Collison, Joseph merits DFS consideration if healthy or if Collison is ruled out. Joseph has averaged a +3.84 DraftKings Plus/Minus on the road against teams with losing records since last season. Also, he’s led the Pacers with a +6.04 DraftKings Plus/Minus in four games against teams with a Defensive Rating of at least 112 over the last month.
When Collison has been off the court, Oladipo has led the Pacers with a +3.2% usage rate and +4.6% assist rate, per the NBA On/Off tool. Conversely, when Joseph has been on the bench, Oladipo, Turner and Sabonis have all averaged roughly 1.1 DraftKings points per minute.
The Pacers have played four total possessions without either point guard on the court during non-blowout minutes, per Cleaning the Glass.
The Pacers are presently favored by 10 points, per the NBA Vegas dashboard. The Cavs have lost their last five homes games by at least 20 points, and they’ve lost nine straight overall. They won’t have the services of Rodney Hood (Achilles) while Cameron Payne potentially makes his Cavs debut.
Suns G Devin Booker (back) is doubtful.
Injury background: Booker left Sunday’s game halfway through the second quarter and never returned after being diagnosed with back spasms.
The back ailment can be traced back five games earlier when Booker took a charge and bruised his lower back. He did not practice Monday.
Tonight’s impact: The Suns are playing the first game of a back-to-back, and if Booker’s status isn’t provided after shootaround, it’ll likely come shortly after 7 p.m. ET lineup lock.
Josh Jackson started Sunday’s second half in Booker’s absence, and he supplied 35.5 FanDuel points on unsustainable shooting in 32 minutes. Kelly Oubre was limited to 17 minutes as the backup power forward to T.J. Warren.
Jackson costs no more than $4,900 on FanDuel and DraftKings, and he may start if Booker can’t play. When Booker has been off the court since the Trevor Ariza trade, Jackson has averaged a respectable 1.1 DraftKings points per minute and 15.9% rebound rate — both marks are second on the team behind only Deandre Ayton’s numbers.
Ayton’s production sans Booker over the last three weeks has improved to 1.35 DraftKings points per minute, and his usage rate has increased by 4.1%.
The Kings have been among the worst teams at rebounding and defending the paint and rim, but that may be related to the fast pace with which they play. Ayton should exploit the matchup (unless he’s benched the final 19 minutes as he was in the first game against Sacramento this season).
The Suns are 1-9 without Booker this season and 0-2 when he’s exited early due to injury. When he’s been off the court since Ariza was traded, the Suns have somehow cobbled together a team-high +5.7 Net Rating, per NBA.com.
The Suns have also averaged a team-high 105.69 possessions per 48 minutes sans Booker over that span — four possessions extra compared to when Booker plays.
The Suns get the Kings on the second night of a back-to-back. The Kings are 3-5 while averaging 104.1 points per game on zero days rest. When given at least one day between games, the Kings have averaged 118.03 points per game.
The Kings are presently implied to score 116.5; the Suns have allowed at least 118 points in eight of their last nine games. That said, the Kings’ regression on the second game of back-to-backs may support the under.
Additionally, the Kings have been marked by ESPN’s NBA Schedule Alert formula with a Mah Score of eight out of 10. That may have actually been negated as the Kings were up 28 points heading into the fourth quarter Monday, and former Sun Bogdan Bogdanovic was the only Kings starter to play more than 25 minutes.