NBA Injury Report: Betting, DFS Impact of Kawhi, Giannis and Anthony Davis Missing Monday’s Games
- Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis will all sit out for Monday's NBA slate.
- Kyle Lowry, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday figure to be the biggest beneficiaries.
Three of the NBA’s biggest stars in Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis have been ruled out tonight in their respective matchups. Below we detail the DFS and betting implications of each absence.
Kawhi Leonard (rest) is out.
DFS: Leonard and OG Anunoby (personal) have both been ruled out for Monday’s contest vs. the Milwaukee Bucks. Fred VanVleet (toe) is also questionable, so the Raptors have the potential to be pretty shorthanded for today’s contest.
Kyle Lowry saw a big bump in volume in his first game that Leonard missed this season, posting a usage rate of 30.1% and scoring 55.25 DraftKings points. Danny Green could see a few additional minutes, and he’s seen a usage bump of +9.2% with both Leonard and Anunoby off the court to begin the season.
Pascal Siakam is another intriguing value option: He played 26.5 minutes and scored 30.5 DraftKings points the last time Leonard was out of the lineup.
Betting: Based on our proprietary NBA power ratings, which we update every Tuesday, we have the Bucks as about a half-point favorite at home. However, that doesn’t factor in injuries for both Leonard and Giannis Antetokounmpo, both of whom will be out tonight.
BetDSI has pegged their value at four points a piece, which is probably why the line has held steady at Raptors -2 after opening at that number.
That said, the Raptors had a historically good bench last season: Per Cleaning the Glass, the bench unit of Fred VanVleet, Delon Wright, CJ Miles, Pascal Siakam and Jakob Poeltl outscored opponents by a ridiculous 14.9 points per 100 possessions.
Poeltl was traded during the offseason, but Wright is expected to play on Monday after being out most of the season.
The Raps will certainly have a nice bench advantage, which could be important given the star injuries.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (concussion) is out.
DFS: Antetokounmpo has been ruled out of Monday’s contest vs. the Toronto Raptors with a concussion. Antetokounmpo has dominated the ball for the Bucks this season, ranking first in the league with a usage rate of 36.7%, so his absence will open up a lot of opportunities for his teammates.
Khris Middleton has seen the biggest boost in production with Antetokounmpo off the court to begin the season, posting a usage rate of 37.3% and averaging 1.64 DraftKings points per minute. He’s tough to pass up at just $6,900 on DraftKings.
Ersan Ilyasova will replace Antetokounmpo in the starting lineup. He has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minutes with Antetokounmpo off the floor this season and could be an appealing DFS value option.
Betting: See above in the Kawhi section for analysis on this game.
Anthony Davis (elbow) is out.
DFS: Davis and Darius Miller (quad) have both been ruled out of Monday’s contest vs. the Nuggets, while Julius Randle (foot) remains probable.
Jrue Holiday has seen the biggest bump with Davis off the floor this season, increasing his usage rate by +4.7%. He’s been plagued by some awful shooting numbers to start the season, but he still seems like a major value at $6,700 on DraftKings.
Randle will likely enter the starting lineup. While he played just 18.5 minutes with Davis out of the lineup in the Pelicans’ last game, that game turned into a blowout quickly, so he should see more minutes if today’s game stays competitive.
Unfortunately, their matchup vs. the Nuggets is a difficult one: Denver ranks third in defensive efficiency to begin the season. This game isn’t guaranteed to stay competitive with Davis out of the lineup.
Betting: The Nuggets opened as 7-point at home versus the Pelicans and now sit at -9 after news that Davis will be out for the second straight game.
Based on our power ratings, that number is about right, assuming Davis is worth about five points to the spread.
However, that might be underrating Davis’ value: The Pelicans got blown out by the Jazz this weekend without him, and overall New Orleans has been a ridiculous 35.0 points per 100 possessions worse with him off the floor versus on.