NBA Injury Report: Betting, DFS Impact of Victor Oladipo, Kawhi Leonard Injuries
- The NBA Injury Report is a daily piece that runs through the slate's key injuries and their betting and DFS impact.
- There are two key teams with injuries to analyze on Wednesday night: the Indiana Pacers and Toronto Raptors.
There are 13 games tonight with a lot of injuries and questionable players. We’ll analyze two key situations in this piece: the Indiana Pacers at the Charlotte Hornets and the Toronto Raptors at the Atlanta Hawks.
Pacers SG Victor Oladipo (knee), C Myles Turner (ankle) are questionable.
Injury background: Oladipo missed Monday’s win due to a sore right knee, and he missed all but five minutes of the previous game with the same injury. Per Oladipo, he did “a little sumthin sumthin” during Tuesday’s practice.
Turner left Monday’s game in the first quarter after spraining his ankle, but he returned in the second and was one of three starters who sat the final quarter in the blowout win.
Tonight’s impact: Tyreke Evans started in Oladipo’s absence on Monday, and Aaron Holiday has played at least 15 minutes in the last two games following a string of DNP-CDs. If Oladipo is ruled out again, Evans may continue to start and Holiday projects to have a firm role in coach Nate McMillan’s nine-man rotation.
When Oladipo has been on the bench this season, the Pacers’ advanced stats have improved. The Pacers have rebounded at a better rate, produced more efficient offense and averaged close to an additional four possessions per 48 minutes.
When Turner has been off the court, Domantas Sabonis has averaged 45.5 DraftKings points per 36 minutes — down from 47.6 in the 80 minutes he’s played with Turner, per the On/Off tool. He missed a triple-double on Monday by one rebound and one assist in 26 minutes, and he’s one of three players in the NBA with an assist rate of at least 20% and a defensive rebound rate of at least 25%.
When both Oladipo and Turner have been on the bench, the Pacers have cultivated a +8.1 Net Rating and dominated the defensive glass. Sabonis has improved his per-36 minute production to 50.7 DraftKings points.
In four games against the Hornets last season, Sabonis averaged 32.1 DraftKings points per game and Oladipo recorded a team-high 44.8 DraftKings points in three games. In the game Oladipo missed, the Pacers lost by 26 points, and they’re 1-7 without Oladipo since last season. The 14.1-point average margin of defeat sans Oladipo was capsized in Monday’s 27-point win.
The last time Turner or Sabonis missed a game, Kyle O’Quinn served as the backup center and notched 32.0 DraftKings points in 18.5 minutes. He’ll be a nice value play at the minimum. Holiday’s status as a value option may be hindered by Oladipo’s availability and a slight increase in his salary.
Raptors SF Kawhi Leonard (rest) is doubtful, SF OG Anunoby (wrist) and SG CJ Miles (groin) are TBD.
Injury background: Leonard has yet to be cleared for back-to-backs this season, and the Raptors are playing in Atlanta on Wednesday after visiting Orlando on Tuesday.
Miles has missed the previous four games due to a strained right adductor but thinks he can return Wednesday, while Anunoby has been held out the past two games with a sprained right wrist. Neither player has an official status as of now.
Tonight’s impact: Leonard has already been held out of five games this season, and Fred VanVleet drew the start in Leonard’s latest absence with Anunoby and Miles also sidelined. VanVleet played well alongside Kyle Lowry and produced a season-high 34.5 DraftKings points in 29 minutes.
Lowry has led the team in both usage rate differential and FantasyLabs Plus/Minus differential sans Leonard on his way to 44.4 DraftKings points per game. He was questionable heading into Tuesday’s win with an ankle injury but squashed any concerns on his availability for Wednesday during his postgame presser:
How’s the ankle feeling?
“You know the answer to that.”
Were you close at all to not playing?
“You know the answer to that.”
We’ll see you tomorrow?
“We know the answer to that.”
Serge Ibaka has also benefited from Leonard’s absence this season, averaging a team-high 1.53 DraftKings points per minute with a +4.1% usage rate increase. Pascal Siakam rounds out the primary beneficiaries and has seen an additional 1.9 minutes on his way to 33.8 DraftKings points per game.
Despite missing their most valuable player, the Raptors have beaten their opponents by an average of 17.5 points in their four wins, while losing by 15 to the Bucks in their only loss. Fortunately, the matchup on Wednesday is prime: The Hawks have dropped eight straight and rank 29th in Offensive Rating and 23rd in Defensive Rating this season.