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NBA Odds & Picks for Pelicans vs. Warriors: Uncertainty Places Value on the Total (Friday, May 14)

NBA Odds & Picks for Pelicans vs. Warriors: Uncertainty Places Value on the Total (Friday, May 14) article feature image

Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Stephen Curry.

Pelicans vs. Warriors Odds

Pelicans Odds +2
Warriors Odds -2
Moneyline +116 / -136
Over/Under 225
Time 10 p.m. ET
Odds as of Friday and via FanDuel.

Friday evening’s matchup between the New Orleans Pelicans and Golden State Warriors features a long injury report.

As of Friday morning, the following players are listed on the injury report:
– Warriors: Stephen Curry (questionable), Andrew Wiggins (questionable), Draymond Green (questionable)
– Pelicans: Steven Adams (questionable), Brandon Ingram (questionable), Lonzo Ball (out), Zion Williamson (out)

With so many potential players sitting and nothing on the line, I expect this game will play out like a glorified pre-season game. It is not an easy task to identify value in such an unpredictable scenario, so I don’t advocate wagering on this game.

If you are adamant about taking a position, there is one way I would be looking and that is towards the total.

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New Orleans Pelicans

The New Orleans Pelicans are no longer in the playoff hunt, ending a disappointing season under Stan Van Gundy’s first season as head coach. After an injury-ravaged rookie season, Zion Williamson took a leap forward this year, but the Pelicans were not able to overcome the stiff competition in the Western Conference.

The Pelicans have one 8-2-1 to the under in their previous 11 games, per the Sports Data Query Language database. They are ranked second in the league in Defensive Rating (106.6) during those 11 games, per NBA Advanced Stats. With so many of their offensive firepower missing, they’ve reverted back to a strong defense.

Ball has been declared out, so without their starting point guard, it will be difficult for the Pelicans to generate much offense. In games that he has sit this season, the Pelicans are 9-6 to the under.

Golden State Warriors

With the Grizzlies winning their game against the Kings on Thursday evening, the Warriors and Grizzlies are tied for the No. 8 seed with a record of 37-33.  The Warriors are unable to overtake the No. 7 seed from the Lakers.

Therefore, whether they win or lose this game against the Pelicans, the final seeding will be determined in Sunday’s game versus the Grizzlies, whom they will face in a rubber match to determine the tiebreaker for the No. 8 seed.

In other words, this game is meaningless. Therefore, I would be surprised if Curry, Wiggins and Green suit up on Friday as I expect them to get a rest day to prepare for the last regular season game against the Grizzlies and play-in tournament immediately after.

The Warriors are 6-2 to the under this season when Curry sits, per the SDQL database, only averaging 102.4 points per game. Also, despite having one of the best scorers of all time in Curry, the Warriors are surprisingly 38-31-1 (55.1%) to the under this season, thanks to their improved defense. They rank fifth in Defensive Rating (109.4) in the league, per NBA Advanced Stats.

Pelicans-Warriors Pick

The Warriors are likely looking to take a breather before the regular season finale and the Pelicans ready to go on vacation, I wouldn’t suggest wagering much on this game.

If Curry and Wiggins are declared out and if you insist on a position, the under should be a decent look as each team’s best offensive players will probably sit.

Lean: Under 225 (No lower than this number)

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