Sunday NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: Back Beverley to Facilitate (Sept. 13)
Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Jamal Murray and Patrick Beverley.
- The Los Angeles Clippers are looking to close out their series against the Denver Nuggets on Sunday.
- While the Nuggets have fought back, the Clippers are favored to close out the series today. But how does that affect prop bets?
- Reed Wallach breaks it down and shares his favorite props of the day, featuring picks on Jamal Murray and Patrick Beverley.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll, especially in the NBA postseason. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
|Win-Loss (Win Pct)|
|Bet Quality of 10||775-572 (57%)|
|Bet Quality of 9||942-776 (54%)|
|Bet Quality of 8||1432-1263 (52%)|
Sunday’s player props come from the slate’s lone game:
- Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Clippers at 1 p.m. ET on ESPN
NBA Player Prop Bets
Patrick Beverley, Los Angeles Clippers
The Prop: Over 2.5 Assists (-105)
Part of me thinks this is a slam spot for the Clippers. If you think back to the first round, the Mavericks had a miraculous comeback in Game 5 to force an intriguing Game 6 they probably didn’t belong in. Well, it seems we have a similar situation here.
The Clippers cleaned up in Game 6 and got out pretty easily against Dallas, and we will likely see similar motivation from LA. Beverley is going to continue to receive a steady workload, but I don’t expect him to score — I expect him to facilitate.
Beverley went way above his expected shot output in Game 5, shooting 4-of-8 from the field but 2-of-6 from beyond the arc. I think we see him scale it back with the pressure on a bit. Whether it’s making the extra pass to get Kawhi Leonard or Paul George going or starting the break and finding teammates, I see Bev racking up some assist totals in this one.
The Player Prop tool forecasts Beverley for 3.3 assists, nearly a full assist over his prop of 2.5. With a reduced juice of -105, I would play it up to -130.
Montrezl Harrell, Los Angeles Clippers
The Prop: Under 11.5 Points (-114)
This has not been the best series for Montrezl Harrell. Nikola Jokic is a tough matchup for the small ball center, as the Clippers seem better suited putting Ivica Zubac on him.
From a big-picture perspective, Trez has been a -41 for LA, while Zubac has been a +109. Harrell was out for the beginning of the playoffs and still may be shaking off some rust, but this matchup is simply not for him. Jokic can see over Harrell and create with little trouble. Expect Doc Rivers to make a change in Game 6.
With potentially fewer minutes allotted to the former Louisville standout, I’ll be on this under. The Player Prop tool is projecting Harrell to score 9.9 points, giving this a prop a rating of 9/10. I would play this to under 10.5 at -115.
Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets
The Prop: Under 24.5 Points (-118)
With the idea of the Clippers bringing playoff intensity for a full 48, I think that Murray would suffer the most in this case. It hasn’t been the best series for him after an incredible first round, but Murray went over this total in Game 5, helping out in Denver’s second-half comeback by scoring 26 points on 9-of-25 shooting.
Different Clippers have taken turns on Murray, but don’t be surprised to see increased Leonard minutes on the Denver guard. If that’s the case, this is going to be a Jokic game, and Murray may be relegated to hanging out around the perimeter as a decoy.
Murray is averaging under 20 points per game this series, scoring 14 points per game in losses and over 26 in wins. If the Clippers are going to close this series out in six, it probably starts with shutting down Murray, and Leonard is likely going to take the initiative of doing that.
I would play this down to 22.5 at -105 if the total drops down.