NBA Player Props Odds, Picks: How to Bet Zach Collins’ Rebounds vs. Nets (Thursday, Aug. 13)
Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Zach Collins.
- Zach Collins' and DeMar DeRozan's rebounds are among Brandon Anderson's favorite player props for Thursday's NBA slate.
- Collins' total rebounds is set at 6.5, and Anderson thinks it will be difficult for him to grab 7+ boards if he only plays 20 minutes.
- Read more of Anderson's analysis and see his picks below.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Here’s how those props did this season prior to the shut down:
|FantasyLabs Grade||Win-Loss (Win Pct)|
|Bet Quality of 10||775-572 (57%)|
|Bet Quality of 9||942-776 (54%)|
|Bet Quality of 8||1432-1263 (52%)|
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s seven games:
- Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns at 4:00 p.m. ET on TNT
- San Antonio Spurs vs. Utah Jazz at 6:30 p.m. p.m. ET on TNT
- Portland Trail Blazers vs. Brooklyn Nets at 9:00 p.m. ET on TNT
NBA Player Prop Bets
Phoenix Suns, Devin Booker
The Prop: Over 6.5 assists (+110)
The Suns are undefeated, perhaps you’ve heard. Phoenix will push for an 8-0 bubble finish today, and it’s a win they have to get to have any shot at the playoffs. Devin Booker has been one of the bubble MVP candidates so far, and he’ll certainly want to finish with a big game.
Booker averaged 6.5 assists per game this season, and he’s at 6.1 in the bubble, but that number has ticked up to 7.0 over his last five games. As the Suns are coming together, Booker is getting more and more help from teammates like Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson, and he is really starting to zip passes all over the court.
This is a Game 7 for Phoenix essentially, so expect Booker to play as many minutes as needed, potentially in the 40 range. If Phoenix wins, Booker is going to need a big game. I love this at plus-odds, but I’d play it down to -125 if needed.
Portland Trail Blazers, Zach Collins
The Prop: Under 6.5 rebounds (-140)
We don’t exactly have a ton of Zach Collins data to go on. Collins has played 10 games all season, even including the bubble, and he’s averaging 6.3 rebounds per game in a low-profile role as the starting power forward.
Like Phoenix, this is a near must-win game for Portland, so it will do anything it can for the win. But unlike Booker, Collins is not exactly proving to be a key cog for the Blazers. He played more than 36 minutes in the bubble opener, his first game since the opening week of the season, but his minutes have fallen steadily since. The next three games were around 27 or 28 minutes, then 25, 23, and less than 20 in the last three games.
Notice a trend? I sure do. Jusuf Nurkic’s return has ignited the Blazers, but Collins hasn’t had the same effect. Portland is increasingly confident in Carmelo Anthony and Gary Trent Jr., and Collins may be a starter but he’s playing bench minutes.
This is simply a bet against volume. If Collins gets only around 20 minutes, it’ll be hard to get to 7+ rebounds. Our Props tool rates this under a 10 out of 10, and I’d play it up to -165.
San Antonio Spurs, DeMar DeRozan
The Prop: Under 5.5 rebounds (-115)
The Spurs are desperate for a win and a chance at the play-in game too … for now. There’s one problem, though. The Spurs play early this evening, but Memphis and Phoenix will already have played by then. And if they both win, the Spurs are eliminated, regardless of their result. If that happens, there’s really no reason to give the veteran DeRozan a full run, and he could see a big minutes cut.
Even if DeRozan plays a full load, I don’t get this line. Yes, DeRozan is a de facto “power forward” now, but that doesn’t mean he’s magically putting up big rebounding numbers. He’s averaging only 4.4 RPG in the bubble and has gone under this number in six of seven games.
I think the books made a mistake here, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this line fall fast. I’d grab it up to -175 and I wouldn’t be shocked to see it fall to 5.0, but I’d play it there too.