Friday’s Best NBA Player Props: Will Joel Embiid Feast on the Knicks?

Friday’s Best NBA Player Props: Will Joel Embiid Feast on the Knicks? article feature image

Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Hassan Whiteside

  • Friday's 12-game NBA slate features five player prop bets offering value
  • This piece will focus on Hornets PF P.J. Washington, 76ers C Joel Embiid, Heat G Kendrick Nunn, Clippers PG Patrick Beverley, and Blazers C Hassan Whiteside

Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.

That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.

How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.

As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:

  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)

Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.

Tonight’s props come from five of the slate’s 12 games:

  • Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons: 7 p.m. ET
  • Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Golden State Warriors at Miami Heat: 8 p.m. ET
  • Los Angeles Clippers at San Antonio Spurs: 8:30 p.m. ET
  • Chicago Bulls at Portland Trail Blazers: 10 p.m. ET

Let’s dive in.

Hornets PF P.J. Washington

THE PICK: Under 8.5 points (+130)

Washington exploded for 17 points in his last contest, but that will not deter me from fading him once again. In fact, his scoring outburst in his last game has made the odds on this prop even more appealing that usual.

Washington had scored eight points or fewer in each of his five previous contests, and he continues to play reduced minutes. He logged just 21.0 minutes in his last game and has now played 23.5 minutes or less in five of his past six games.

I think this prop should be priced around -120 given Washington’s current workload, so there’s a ton of merit in grabbing it at +130. I would play it all the way up to even money.
[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

76ers C Joel Embiid

THE PICK: Over 25.5 points (+105)

The 76ers are expected to be without Al Horford, Josh Richardson, and Kyle O’Quinn today, which could lead to a huge scoring night for Embiid. He’s posted a whopping 41.2% usage rate with Horford and Richardson off the court this season, which represents a massive increase compared to his season average of 32.1%.

He could definitely take advantage of those extra shot attempts vs. the New York Knicks, who rank 22nd in defensive efficiency. He also has extra upside from the free throw line vs. Mitchell Robinson, who can’t seem to play defense without picking up fouls.

He has averaged 6.1 fouls per 36 minutes, which is a big reason why the Knicks’ coaching staff hasn’t played him extended minutes this season. Embiid is one of the most talented players in the league, and this feels like a potential eruption spot for him. I like the over up to -125.
[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Heat G Kendrick Nunn

THE PICK: Under 13.5 points (+109)

Nunn got off to a fantastic start for the Heat this season, but he should take on a much less prominent role moving forward. A lot of his early production came with Goran Dragic, Jimmy Butler, and Justise Winslow out of the lineup, and all three players are currently back in action.

Fellow rookie Tyler Herro has also played at least 35.5 minutes in two of the past three games, which doesn’t leave a ton of playing time for Nunn. He logged just 28.1 minutes in his last contest, and he’s projected for just 24.5 minutes for today’s matchup vs. the Warriors.

I like the idea of selling high on Nunn, who was never expected to be a prominent part of Miami’s rotation as an undrafted rookie. I’d play the under up to -110.
[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Clippers PG Patrick Beverley

THE PICK: Under 8.5 points (-121)

Beverley is a huge part of the Clippers’ rotation this season, but he’s not someone who provides a ton of scoring. He’s currently averaging just 7.4 points per game, and he’s scored eight points or fewer in 12 of his first 17 games.

Keep in mind that many of those contests have come with either Paul George or Kawhi Leonard out of the lineup, and both players are expected to be in the lineup today. Beverley’s usage rate drops to 11.7% when sharing the court with both players.

The Clippers are in a great spot for scoring vs. the Spurs — they’ve fallen all the way to 29th in defensive efficiency — but Beverley has a tough individual matchup vs. Dejounte Murray. He graded out as the top point guard in terms of Defensive Real Plus/Minus the last time he played a full season.

Taking the under on a small scoring prop like this is always scary, but this line seems underpriced at -121. I would play the under up to -140.
[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Trail Blazers C Hassan Whiteside

THE PICK: Over 12.5 rebounds (+110)

Betting on a Whiteside over is obviously a dangerous proposition. He’s known to take games off, and routinely found himself in Erik Spolestra’s doghouse as a member of the Heat. That said, his playing time has been much more consistent as a member of the Blazers, and he’s in a fantastic spot today vs. the Bulls.

They rank just 28th in team rebound rate, and Whiteside managed 12 boards in just 22.9 minutes in their first meeting this season. We have him projected for over 28 minutes today, and he should dominate on the boards if he sees that much playing time. Whiteside owns a rebound rate of 22.6% this season, which ranks fourth in the NBA.

This is the time of year for being thankful, and I’m definitely thankful that this prop is available at better than even money. I like the over up to -120.
[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

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