Sunday NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks: How to Bet Marcus Smart & Luka Dončić (May 30)

Sunday is stacked with another loaded slate of NBA playoff games. I won’t shy away from Saturday’s 0-for-3 performance, but today is a new day with another shot at redemption. 

Similar to Saturday’s article, I faded the Hawks vs. Knicks game to target players from two of the games that tip this evening. They’re critical Game 4 matchups that could force a few teams to the brink of elimination or even up the series. 

Let’s get into which player props I’m betting on for the Celtics/Nets and Clippers/Mavericks contests.

For those who are new to this article, we'll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.

Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I'm playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.

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NBA Player Props & Picks

Marcus Smart — Over 23.5 PTS + REBS + ASTS (-108)

Kemba Walker is questionable coming into Sunday’s bout and I don’t trust his balky knee with the series seemingly on the line. That’s why I am pivoting to Marcus Smart. He's the only player stepping up alongside Jayson Tatum and he’ll be heavily involved in Game 4. 

Smart is coming off a Game 3 victory after providing 23 points, six assists, three rebounds, and five 3-pointers in 39 minutes of action. He’s now averaging 19.7 points, 5.7 assists and 3.0 rebounds in his first-round series against Brooklyn. With his current PRA market sitting at  23.5, this is a great value relative to his recent string of performances.

According to Basketball-Reference, Smart’s player efficiency rating has improved in the Playoffs (17.1) versus the regular season (13.8). With a PER north of 15, he’s above the league average and has shown growth in his per-minute production against the Nets. He’s been lights out from 3-point range as well, knocking down an average of 4.3 3-pointers per game at a 54.2% clip.

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He’s been so efficient shooting the ball that he ranks in the 100th percentile thus far in the Playoffs. Per Cleaning the Glass, only Deandre Ayton, Mike Conley, Kawhi Leonard and Tim Hardaway Jr. are scoring with the same level of efficiency. Furthermore, Smart has cleared 23.5 points + rebounds + assists in four consecutive games versus Brooklyn.

The game total is at 228.5 points, which is the highest on the slate. The Celtics and Nets went over in their last two games with a similar implied total, signaling a positive game script for Smart to stuff the stat sheet.

Smart could clear his combo market in points alone and with the added bonus of him seeing a larger share of the usage with Walker, not at 100%, I’m taking the over. Our Lab Projections tool has Smart notching 26.6 points + rebounds + assists with a bet quality rating of 8 in this spot.

Luka Dončić — Over 30.5 Points (-115)

The Mavericks still control the series and here lies an opportunity to put the Clippers down for good. Luka Dončić has been the best player on the court and it has shown. He’s averaging 38 points for the series while hoisting up 27 shot attempts per game. Dončić is shooting 51.9% from the field, while nailing an average of 5.7 3-pointers per game.

I’m not even mentioning his assists and rebounds here, but for good measure he’s collecting 9.0 assists and 8.7 rebounds per contest in his first-round series versus the Clippers.

Dallas is laying three points on their home turf in Game 4, but Dončić has performed well as a home dog. According to Fansure, Dončić has exceeded 30.5 points in 8 of his last 10 games as an underdog. During that span, he has averaged 34.1 points per game as an underdog.

The series is getting chippy and Dončić has been willing his team through three games. I mean, it's been the Dončić show  as he’s put up at least 31 points in each of the three games so far. 

The Clippers are getting torched when Dončić runs the pick and roll, as he’s often left on an island with a mismatch to create, shoot, or drive to the basket. His only blemish has been his free-throw shooting. He’s getting to the line nine times per game in the series, but only converting at a 48.1 percent rate. 

That’s near Shaq territory. Despite his woes from the free-throw line, it’s a good sign he’s scoring at all levels. 

Game 4 is a statement game for both teams. So, I’m expecting Dončić to come out firing and keeping the foot on the gas with the opportunity to go up 3-1 on the Clippers. I’m taking the over on Dončić to score more than 30.5 points in another tight matchup.