NBA Player Prop Bets and Picks: Finding Value On Joel Embiid and Luka Doncic (Friday, Aug. 21)
Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers.
- Brandon Anderson used the FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool to find value on a trio of bets for Friday night's slate.
- Read his analysis below and find out why he thinks Joel Embiid and Luka Doncic are both good bets to go over on their total rebounds:
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll, especially in the NBA postseason. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
|Win-Loss (Win Pct)|
|Bet Quality of 10||775-572 (57%)|
|Bet Quality of 9||942-776 (54%)|
|Bet Quality of 8||1432-1263 (52%)|
Today’s props come from two of the slate’s four games:
- Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers at 6:30 p.m. ET on TNT
- Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks at 9:00 p.m. ET on TNT
NBA Player Prop Bets
Philadelphia 76ers, Joel Embiid
The Prop: Over 13.5 rebounds (+105)
It’s now or never for the 76ers, at least the 2020 version of them. The Sixers haven’t had any answers against the Celtics. No Ben Simmons means no one to slow down Jayson Tatum, and it has left the offense asking a lot of questions, too.
The one player who continues to produce is Philly’s best man out there, Joel Embiid. Embiid was a monster out of the gates in the Orlando bubble, averaging 30.0 points and 13.5 rebounds in 33.8 minutes the first four games before winding down and resting in the later games. Those numbers picked right back up in the playoffs, with 30points and 13 rebounds per game so far in 35.9 minutes.
Embiid’s conditioning is not particularly great, but Philly will surely play him as much as he can handle with the season on the line, down 0-2. And if he’s out there, he will produce against Boston’s smaller lineup. We’re projecting Embiid at 37.6 minutes and 15.5 rebounds, pretty close to his Game 1 line before the Sixers got blown out in Game 2 and Embiid’s minutes dropped a bit.
How often do you get +EV odds on the most talented big man in basketball against a small team? I’m smashing Embiid at +105 and happy to play this number down to -115 if needed.
Dallas Mavericks, Luka Doncic
The Prop: Over 8.5 rebounds (-130)
The Mavs came back to tie up the series in Game 2 and look like they’re on pretty even footing with the Clippers so far. And the crazy thing is Dallas has played LA this well even without getting great performances from their two superstars. Kristaps Porzingis was ejected and missed almost half of Game 1. Luka Doncic left hurt in Game 1 before returning but had a near-record 11 turnovers despite his big line, and his playing time was limited in Game 2 with foul trouble.
The Clippers should be afraid that Dallas is playing this well even without an awesome game from either star. Tonight I think they’re getting the full Luka experience. Doncic has only eight and seven rebounds these first two games, but don’t be thrown off. He played only 28.1 minutes last game with the foul trouble, and he was nursing a sore ankle in Game 1.
I expect a full go from Doncic tonight, and we’re projecting him at 37.1 minutes. Doncic has played at least 37 minutes 16 times this season and gone over 8.5 rebounds in 11 of those games, hitting this prop 69% of the time. He’s a good bet for double-digit rebounds in that many minutes against any team, and we’re projecting him at 11.1, leaving you huge margin of error. I’ll play to -160.
Los Angeles Clippers, Marcus Morris
The Prop: Over 12.5 points (-125) | Over 1.5 assists (+155)
Remember how the Clippers were supposed to be this deep, versatile roster that matched up with any team? Los Angeles is struggling to find the right players to put out on the court with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.
Montrezl Harrell is still playing his way back into shape after his time away, as is Landry Shamet. Lou Williams is an elite bench scorer but a terrible defender getting hunted on that end. Patrick Beverley is the guy the Clippers really miss. He’s a great two-way guard LA would love to have in its closing lineup.
With all those shaky names, the Clippers have been leaning hard on midseason acquisition, Marcus Morris. Morris is a versatile wing the team trusts on both ends of the court, and he’s seeing far bigger minutes than expected right now. Morris has played at least 29 minutes in seven straight appearances, and he’s averaging 33.8 minutes in two playoff games.
Those minutes mean increased production. Morris has scored at least 14 points in all but one of those seven games, hitting this points prop 86% of the time these last couple weeks. If he’s out there, he’ll be firing, so expect him to get his points. The assists are a bit trickier, but that’s why the odds are in our favor. Morris had one assist in three of those seven recent games and 2 dimes in the other four.
I’m playing the points first and riding that one to -150. If you’re really feeling Morris, grab the assists over too. I think 1.5 is about right there, but +155 is giving us great odds. I wouldn’t take that one much lower than +140.