Best NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks (Monday, December 30): Fade Dario Saric on the Road
Harry How/Getty Images. Pictured: Dario Saric (20) of the Phoenix Suns.
- Monday's six-game NBA slate features three player prop bets offering value.
- This piece will focus on Heat C Bam Adebayo, Hawks PF John Collins and Suns PF Dario Saric.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Monday afternoon and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s six games:
- Miami Heat at Washington Wizards: 7 p.m. ET
- Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic: 7 p.m. ET on NBATV
- Phoenix Suns at Portland Trail Blazers: 10 p.m. ET on NBATV
Let’s dive in.
Heat C Bam Adebayo
THE PICK: Over 11.5 rebounds (-120)
Adebayo has to be in the conversation for Most Improved Player this year. He has taken full advantage of an increased workload, averaging career-highs in virtually every category across the board. He’s averaging 10.5 rebounds per game, which is the 10th-highest mark in the league.
He could definitely improve upon that mark today vs. the Wizards. They’ve played at the second-fastest pace in the league this season, and they also rank dead last in team rebound rate. That’s a great combination for securing a bunch of boards. Adebayo played 37 minutes in his first matchup vs. the Wizards this season and finished with 14 rebounds.
Adebayo should be able to crush the Wizards on the interior, so I’d play this prop up to -140.
Hawks PF John Collins
THE PICK: Over 9.5 rebounds (-129)
Collins isn’t in a particularly good spot today vs. the Magic, but there are still reasons for optimism. For starters, the team is pretty shorthanded at the moment. Both Trae Young and Jabari Parker will miss today’s contest, so Collins could see a few additional minutes.
This line is also pretty conservative. Collins has averaged 9.8 rebounds per game despite averaging just 31.8 minutes, and he’s pulled down at least 10 boards in two of three games since returning from suspension. As long as the Hawks can keep this game close – they’re currently 11-point underdogs – I like his chances of hitting the over.
There is definitely some risk with this prop, but it’s still grading out as a 10 in our Player Prop tool. I like it up to -140.
Suns PF Dario Saric
THE PICK: Under 10.5 points (-105)
Saric has seen a reduced workload for the Suns recently, logging 22.4 minutes or fewer in each of his past four games. That number could be even lower today if Deandre Ayton is able to return from injury. He was initially listed as out but has since been upgraded to questionable.
Regardless, this line seems too high given Saric’s projected workload. He’s averaged 11.3 points per game this season, but he’s done that over an average of 27.5 minutes.
Saric is going to need a hot shooting night to hit the over on his current prop, and I’m willing to bet against that. I like the under up to -135.