Monday NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: Fade Kawhi’s Scoring (Sept. 7)
Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images. Pictured: Kawhi Leonard and Gary Harris (14).
- Monday's NBA slate features two games: Raptors-Celtics and Clippers-Nuggets.
- Raheem Palmer breaks down the best prop bets for the day, including two Clippers point totals.
- Read on to check out Palmer's full preview, which includes props for OG Anunoby, Kawhi Leonard, and Marcus Morris.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll, especially in the NBA postseason. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
|Win-Loss (Win Pct)|
|Bet Quality of 10||775-572 (57%)|
|Bet Quality of 9||942-776 (54%)|
|Bet Quality of 8||1432-1263 (52%)|
Monday’s player props come from both of the slate’s games:
- Boston Celtics vs. Toronto Raptors at 6:40 p.m. ET
- Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets at 9:10 p.m. ET
NBA Player Prop Bets
Toronto Raptors, OG Anunoby
The Prop: Over 5.5 Rebounds (-155)
The biggest trend we’ve seen in Games 3 and 4 is that Nick Nurse has shortened his rotation. The Raptors are playing eight guys, — their starters, plus Serge Ibaka, Norman Powell and Matt Thomas. For that reason alone, there’s value on Raptors starters player props going over. When one looks at the total oddsmakers set for this game — an over/under of 212 — they’re projecting a low-scoring game that lends itself to more rebounds.
When looking at Toronto’s frontcourt, OG Anunoby’s rebounding prop presents the most value. He’s averaging 6.8 rebounds per game during this series and has snagged at least seven rebounds in all but one game. With a potentially lower-scoring Game 5 on the horizon, our FantasyLab numbers project Anunoby at seven rebounds. Play the over 5.5.
Los Angeles Clippers, Kawhi Leonard
The Prop: Under 30.5 points (-114)
Leonard doesn’t have to do it all on this Clippers team. To put it bluntly, they’re stacked offensively. They have an abundance of riches that other teams can only dream off. They have five players averaging double figures in Leonard, Paul George, Lou Williams, Marcus Morris, and Ivica Zubac. Make it six if you want to include Montrezl Harrell, who’s averaging 9.9 points per game. In addition, Reggie Jackson and Landry Shamet can also provide a scoring punch if necessary.
This brings me to my point. Unlike the 2019 Raptors, who had a top-tier defense with very few dynamic scoring options, the Los Angeles Clippers don’t need Kawhi Leonard to score 30 plus points in order to win. Although he averaged 32.8 points against the Dallas Mavericks in the first round of the playoffs and scored 29 points in Game 1 against the Nuggets, Denver made some adjustments in Game 2. Denver began aggressively doubling Kawhi every time he was in the post area. With only 17 shot attempts in Game 2, we saw Kawhi become more of a playmaker. I think that trend continues as he tries to make the Nuggets pay for their aggressive coverage. With a projection of 28.4 points, I like the under 30.5 points.
Los Angeles Clippers, Marcus Morris
The Prop: Over 11.5 points (-117)
In Game 2, the Nuggets packed the paint, sending multiple bodies to Leonard every time he got to spots where he’d normally take his patented mid-range jumper. Kawhi finished the game 4-of-17 shooting with four turnovers. Still, Kawhi capitalized on this coverage by finding open shooters. However, the Clippers only shot 9-for-32 from 3-point range. Nonetheless, you have to assume the Nuggets will continue to force everyone but Kawhi to beat them. This is where we have an edge.
Marcus Morris is averaging 13.3 points per game in the playoffs and is shooting 4.5 3-pointers a game. After dropping 18 points, on 7-of-10 shooting in Game 1, he went just 3-of-9 in a game the Clippers could never get over the hump.
Although Leonard and George are the obvious stars on this team, and Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell provide scoring off the bench, Marcus Morris has emerged as the third option in the Clippers’ starting lineup. He’s fourth in field goal attempts for the Clippers behind Leonard, George and Williams.
We project Morris at 14.2 points in Game 3, so look for him to make the Nuggets pay for their aggressive coverage of Leonard. I like the over 11.5 points.