Monday’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: Go All in on Eric Bledsoe?
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Milwaukee Bucks guard Eric Bledsoe (6).
- Monday's nine-game NBA slate features four player prop bets offering value
- This piece will focus on Hornets SF Miles Bridges, Bucks PG Eric Bledsoe, and Rockets SG James Harden
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s eight games:
- Charlotte Hornets at Toronto Raptors: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Milwaukee Bucks at Chicago Bulls: 8 p.m. ET
- Portland Trail Blazers at Houston Rockets: 8 p.m. ET on NBATV
Let’s dive in.
Hornets SF Miles Bridges
THE PICK: Under 11.5 points (-130)
Bridges has seen his role in the offense wane recently. He logged 24.7 minutes two games ago, and that number dropped to just 14.8 in his last game. Both of those games were decided by three points or less, and foul trouble doesn’t appear to be a factor either. That’s definitely an alarming trend.
He has unsurprisingly struggled to score the ball given his reduction in playing time, logging seven points or fewer in both contests. Now he has a brutal matchup vs. the Toronto Raptors, who currently rank fifth in the league in defensive efficiency.
The Hornets are implied for a slate-low 103.0 points, so Bridges should have a tough time hitting the over on his scoring prop barring an unexpected increase in playing time.
The prop market hasn’t really caught up to Bridges’ new role. He’s currently averaging 11.6 points per game over 31.4 minutes, so there’s definitely value with the under if he’s going to play less moving forward. I would play it up to -175 today given the matchup.
Bucks PG Eric Bledsoe
THE PICKS: Over 17.5 points (-114) | Over 5.5 rebounds (+122)
The Bucks lost Malcolm Brogdon to the Pacers in the offseason, and Khris Middleton is expected to miss the next 3-4 weeks with a left thigh contusion. That leaves Bledsoe as the team’s clear No. 2 option behind Giannis Antetokounmpo.
He has thrived in that role recently, particularly as a scorer. He’s logged at least 20 points in five of his past six games, so his 10 points in his last contest looks like a clear outlier.
His rebounding prop isn’t as strong, but I’m willing to roll the dice on it at +122. His current rebound rate of 9.5% represents a new career high, and he’s pulled down at least six boards in six of his first 12 games. He’s also seen a slight boost in rebounding production with Middleton off the court this season, increasing his rebound rate to 9.9%.
I’m all in on Bledsoe today given his elite matchup vs. the Nets. I like the over on his scoring prop up to -150 and the over on his rebound prop up to +110.
Rockets G James Harden
THE PICK: Under 6.5 rebounds (-121)
Harden has historically been one of the better rebounding guards in the league, but that hasn’t been the case this season.
It’s not all that surprising given the addition of Russell Westbrook, but Harden’s rebound rate has dropped to just 7.7%. That would be his lowest mark from the past six seasons. Overall, he’s logged six rebounds or fewer in nine of his first 13 games, so this prop seems underpriced.
I’m not actively looking to bet against Harden doing things on a basketball court, but this is a clear exception. I would play this prop up to -140.