NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks (Tuesday, Dec. 3): Has Markelle Fultz Finally Arrived?
Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Orlando Magic guard Markelle Fultz (20).
- Tuesday's seven-game NBA slate features two player prop bets offering value.
- This piece will focus on Magic G Markelle Fultz, Pelicans F Brandon Ingram, Lakers C JaVale McGee
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from two of the slate’s three games:
- Orlando Magic at Washington Wizards: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Dallas Mavericks at New Orleans Pelicans: 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT
- Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets: 9:00 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
Magic PG Markelle Fultz
THE PICK: Over 4.5 assists (+120)
While no one has paid much attention, the former No. 1 overall pick is finally starting to get his footing in the NBA.
Fultz has grabbed the starting job in Orlando and scored double-digit points in eight straight games, averaging 14.6 points and 4.8 assists in 27.8 minutes over that stretch.
Fultz benefits from a juicy matchup against the league’s worst defense in Washington, and that should mean a pace boost, too. He’s only gone over 4.5 assists four times all season, but he’s had 10 more games at three or four dimes.
Combine that with the +120 juice and this is worth a shot in a delicious matchup. You can ride Fultz up to even +100 odds if necessary.
Pelicans F Brandon Ingram
THE PICK: Over 7 rebounds (-114)
The Pelicans are missing both Kenrich Williams and Derrick Favors against the Mavericks. That could mean more time on the court for Ingram, and it should mean him playing up a position some, too, in what could be the night’s highest scoring game. More scoring means more shots and more rebounds for everyone.
Ingram is averaging 7.4 rebounds per game on the season, and that’s ticked up even higher since his return from injury, with all but one of his games at or above seven boards. Our model has Ingram at 8.9 rebounds and rates this a 10 out of 10 prop, so you can play it as high as -140.
Lakers C JaVale McGee
THE PICK: Under 6.5 rebounds (-130)
McGee is one of the league’s most matchup dependent players, and the Denver Nuggets don’t look like the right matchup for him. McGee has played 20 minutes or more five times this season, and four of those were double-digit blowout wins. Unless you expect that in Denver, this looks more like a game for Dwight Howard and Anthony Davis against Nikola Jokic.
McGee has gone over 6.5 rebounds in three straight games, but that gives us an opportunity to sell high. Our models project McGee at 5.4 rebounds. You can also double down and go under 6.5 points for JaVale at +110 if you just don’t think this is his game. You can play the rebounds up to -145.