NBA Player Prop Odds & Picks: Betting Value on Zion Williamson, Jordan Clarkson
Photo credit: Abbie Parr/Getty Images. Pictured: Zion Williamson
- NBA totals have been bet up in a big way this week, as bookmakers perhaps overadjusted to the under given the weird circumstances of the season restart in Orlando.
- What does that mean for player props? Is there value on the overs as well?
- I break down a few props offering value tonight in Pelicans vs. Jazz, including one on Zion Williamson, who is reportedly on track to play tonight.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
|Win-Loss (Win Pct)|
|Bet Quality of 10||775-572 (57%)|
|Bet Quality of 9||942-776 (54%)|
|Bet Quality of 8||1432-1263 (52%)|
Tonight’s props come from the first of tonight’s two games:
- Jazz vs. Pelicans at 6:30 p.m. ET
- Clippers vs. Lakers at 9 p.m. ET
NBA Player Prop Bets
Zion Williamson, New Orleans Pelicans
The Prop: Over 7.5 rebounds + assists (FanDuel)
Update: It’s been reported that Zion is on track to play, but will only do “quick, shorts bursts.” Given that news, I’ll pass on this prop.
On the season, Zion is averaging 9.0 combined rebounds and assists, and that includes games at the beginning in which he was coming mid-season into a rotation and getting his feet under him.
In his last four games before the COVID-19 layoff, he hit eight combined in each game, bumping up to the 30-ish minutes per game range.
Perhaps he’ll be a bit lower than that tonight as he gets himself back into conditioning shape after leaving the Orlando bubble, but I’m expecting the Pelicans to continue to find ways to feature him and run the offense through him and his gravity.
I don’t normally like to take overs on props, but in general I think overs are providing value on game totals in the market, which is probably depressing some props, too. I’ll take the over here and would bet it to 8.
Jordan Clarkson, Utah Jazz
The Prop: Jordan Clarkson over 15.5 points (BetMGM)
Clarkson? Yes, indeed.
The 27-year-old guard is averaging 15.6 points per game for the Utah Jazz this season anyway, and that’s with 25 minutes per game. With Bojan Bogdanovic out the rest of the year, Clarkson should not only get a playing time boost but also a potential usage boost with Bojan gone and Joe Ingles (I like his overs tonight as well) moving to the starting lineup.
Add in the fact that the Jazz are in an incredible pace-up spot against the high-flying Pelicans, and Clarkson should have no shortage of opportunities — with both the first and second units — to get his shots up.
I’d bet over 15.5 points here and would bet it up to 16.5.