NBA Player Props Odds, Picks: Fade Rebound Totals from Zach Collins, Ricky Rubio & More (Tuesday, Aug. 11)
Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Zach Collins.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Here’s how those props did this season prior to the shut down:
|FantasyLabs Grade||Win-Loss (Win Pct)|
|Bet Quality of 10||775-572 (57%)|
|Bet Quality of 9||942-776 (54%)|
|Bet Quality of 8||1432-1263 (52%)|
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s seven games:
- Phoenix Suns vs. Philadelphia 76ers at 4:30 p.m. ET
- Boston Celtics vs. Memphis Grizzlies at 5:00 p.m. ET
- Portland Trail Blazers vs. Dallas Mavericks at 6:30 p.m. ET
NBA Player Prop Bets
Portland Trail Blazers, Zach Collins
The Prop: Under 6.5 rebounds (-149)
Every game matters for the Blazers right now. They’ve been playing really well in the bubble with the return of Zach Collins and Jusuf Nurkic, but they can’t let up now.
Collins played only three games at the start of the season before missing the rest of the games injured. But he’s back now and has played all six bubble games, averaging 27.8 minutes, 6.2 points, and 7.2 rebounds. Collins hasn’t put up big numbers, but he’s really stabilized the Portland rotation.
Well, we only care about the numbers today, and the key number with many props is minutes. Collins played almost 37 minutes in his bubble debut before dropping to 27 or 28 the next three, then down to 24 and under 23 in the last two games. As the games get tighter and more important, Collins is being written out of the script.
We project Collins at 24.4 minutes today, in line with those recent games, and that leaves him only 5.1 rebounds projected, well short of this line. That makes this our only rated 10 prop of the day, and we’ll play it up to -170.
Phoenix Suns, Ricky Rubio
The Prop: Under 4.5 rebounds (+105)
Rubio is averaging 4.7 rebounds per game this year with the Suns, his second highest season total ever. That’s up even further to 5.3 in the bubble, but be careful with that number. In the six Suns games, Rubio has 1, 9, 3, 4, 10, and 5 rebounds, so two games are really bumping the average.
Rubio has five or fewer rebounds in 43 of 63 games this season, which puts this under in play in over 68% of his games. He’s gone under 4.5 rebounds in just over half his games, despite the high average.
The Suns are on fire, a perfect 6-0 in the bubble, but Rubio hasn’t really been the story. It’s been the youngsters breaking out and Rubio’s established himself as a role player both by production and by recent minute load. He’s also facing a big Philly team today, which will hurt his rebounds.
We’re projecting Rubio at only 4.0 rebounds, and that’s in 29.4 minutes, which I think is high. All the better to get +EV here, but I’d play down to -120 if needed.
Memphis Grizzlies, Jonas Valanciunas
The Prop: Under 12.5 rebounds (-133)
The Grizzlies are also playing for their lives, needing every win they can get. They’ve got a tough game today against Boston, which appears to be playing at full strength despite having little to play for.
Valanciunas has been a rock for Memphis, averaging a career best 11.2 rebounds per game this season. He didn’t play much in his bubble debut but is averaging 11.8 RPG in five games since, with double digit boards in each game.
Still, 12.5 is a pretty big target. You might think Valanciunas’s minutes would be up with Jaren Jackson Jr. out, but he’s pretty consistent in that 28-to-30 range. Boston looks like a difficult matchup for Valanciunas, as the Celtics play pretty small and fast and could give him big problems defensively.
We’re projecting Valanciunas at 29 minutes and 10.9 rebounds, and that feels about right to me. Double-digit boards may be doable, but 13 feels like a lot. I’m taking the under here up to -150 as needed.