Tuesday’s Best NBA Player Props: Is Kawhi Leonard Fading?

Tuesday’s Best NBA Player Props: Is Kawhi Leonard Fading? article feature image

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kawhi Leonard

Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.

That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.

Odds as of Tuesday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.

As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:

  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)

Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.

Tonight’s props come from one of the slate’s two games:

  • Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks: 8:30 p.m. ET on NBA TV

Let’s dive in.

Mavericks G Luka Doncic

THE PICK: Over 9.5 rebounds (-107) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

The Slovenian Wonder Boy is doing everything lately. Sixteen games into his age 20 season, Luka Doncic is only four assists short of an absurd 30/10/10 stat line for the season. Luka has seven triple-doubles already this fall.

We’re focusing on his terrific rebounding tonight, which has dropped a bit of late with only 13 rebounds combined his last two games. Contrast that over the season and you see 10 double-digit rebounding games in 16 for Luka and another at nine. That’s 68.8% of the time he hits this over or comes half a rebound away.

Doncic is averaging “only” 10.1 rebounds a game, but that’s because his low rebounding games are often particularly low by comparison. But props are binary, so it doesn’t matter how much he makes or misses by, just that he gets there. Play Luka’s rebounds as high as -135.

Clippers F Kawhi Leonard

THE PICKS: Under 25.5 points (-130) | Under 4.5 assists (+115) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Paul George is finally back, and that’s good news for the Clippers. It’s good news for Kawhi Leonard too, even if it hasn’t been the best news for his numbers.  Kawhi and PG have finally played together for three games, but Leonard’s numbers have taken a hit. He’s down to 22.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 4.0 assists a game in that span.

Of course, three games is small sample size city, but there’s more than just PG taking Kawhi’s numbers here. Leonard’s minutes have been capped at almost exactly 28 each of the last two games, and he still seems to be struggling a bit with injuries. He’s sharing more of the scoring load with PG (and Lou Williams, Montrezl Harrell, and others), and he’s gone under 4.5 assists in five of his last eight games after a hot playmaking start.

Our models are heavily fading Kawhi right now in both fantasy and props. We project Leonard at 21.9 points and 3.9 assists. The assists are the more valuable bet at their juice, but a double fade might be in order if you think the Clippers will rely on PG and others against the Mavericks. Play the points up to -150 and jump on the assists all the way to -110 if needed.

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