Friday’s Best NBA Player Props: Betting Jayson Tatum Points, More

Friday’s Best NBA Player Props: Betting Jayson Tatum Points, More article feature image

Photo credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jayson Tatum

  • Friday's 10-game NBA slate features three player prop bets offering value
  • This piece will focus on Celtics F Jayson Tatum, Hawks C Dewayne Dedmon, and Clippers G Lou Williams

Friday’s best NBA player props focus three of the slate’s 10 games:

  • Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics: 8 p.m. ET on ESPN
  • Atlanta Hawks at Milwaukee Bucks: 8:30 p.m. ET
  • Los Angeles Clippers at Phoenix Suns: 9 p.m. ET

As a reminder, you can dig deeper on these and many other prop bets by using our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool. It leverages our projections against five of the most popular online sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of one to 10.

Celtics F Jayson Tatum

The Pick: Over 17.5 points (-130 at Bovada)

Tatum has not scored the ball well over his past four games, tallying just 31 total points. He made just 36.8% of his shots from the field and 10% of his shots from 3-point range over that time frame, which are both well below his career marks. He’s a prime candidate for some positive regression.

He’ll also benefit from the Celtics’ current injury situation. Both Kyrie Irving and Marcus Morris will miss tonight’s contest vs. the Mavericks, which will give Tatum an opportunity to carry a larger offensive workload. He’s seen a usage bump of +1.9% with both players off the court this season.

This prop represents a nice opportunity to buy low on a gifted young scorer. I’d play it up to -160.

Hawks C Dewayne Dedmon

The Pick: Under 8.5 rebounds (-175 at Bovada)

This prop is juiced up pretty substantially, but I still think it’s exploitable. Dedmon was seeing the majority of the center minutes for the Hawks at one point this season, but appears to be in more of a timeshare now with Alex Len. He played just 27 in their most recent contest, but was still able to pull down nine boards in an elite matchup vs. the Wizards. Things should be much more difficult today vs. the Milwaukee Bucks, who have been the fourth best rebounding team this season.

I don’t like Dedmon’s chances of reaching nine rebounds in less than 30 minutes vs. the Bucks, but this prop is already juiced pretty heavily. I wouldn’t play it at more than -200.

Clippers G Lou Williams

The Pick: Over 19 points (-120 at BetOnline)

Williams in one of the streakiest scorers in basketball, and he’s in the midst of a scorching hot streak at the moment. He’s scored at least 22 points in four of his past five games, with the only exception coming against the suddenly rejuvenated San Antonio Spurs. He’s in an elite spot today vs. the Phoenix Suns, who rank just 28th in defensive efficiency this season, and the Clippers’ implied team total of 119.25 ranks second on the slate.

Williams leads the team in usage rate this season, so he should be one of the primary beneficiaries in this matchup. I like the over up to -150.