Raybon’s Favorite NBA Props for Monday: Will Devin Booker Score 34 Points?
Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1)
- Chris Raybon breaks down his favorite NBA player props for Monday night.
- Props include Raptors PG Kyle Lowry's points and rebounds and Phoenix Suns SG Devin Booker's points.
The three NBA player props highlighted below are from the following two games:
- Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Cleveland Cavaliers at Phoenix Suns: 10 p.m. ET
As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 5:30 p.m. ET. View live odds here.
Raptors PG Kyle Lowry
THE PICK: Under 14.5 Points (-145)
With the second-seeded Raptors in full-on load management mode, head coach Nick Nurse hasn’t deployed the 33-year-old Lowry for 30-plus minutes in a game since March 10, with Lowry averaging 27.2 over that six-game span.
It also looks like Kawhi Leonard will give it go tonight, and Lowry is averaging just 11.9 points per 36 minutes with Leonard on the floor, per our NBA On/Off tool.
On top of that, Lowry tends to be content playing the role of distributor at home, averaging 12.8 points in 33.4 minutes on an 18.1% usage rate in Toronto compared to 16.3 points in 34.6 minutes on a 21.7% usage rate on the road.
All of those trends are unlikely to change tonight against an increasingly stingy Magic defense that Lowry has averaged 14.0 points in 34.0 minutes against in two prior meetings this season.
Lowry has failed to crack 15 points in 19-of-32 (15.4%) home games, scoring 13 or fewer in exactly half, so this prop should have value down to under 14.5 at standard juice or under 14 at even money.
At under 14.5 (-145), this prop is rated a perfect 10 in Bet Quality by our props tool, and 10-rated props have produced a smooth 58%/39%/2% win/loss/push rate since the start of the season.
Raptors PG Kyle Lowry
THE PICK: Under 4.5 Rebounds (-100)
With Lowry’s minutes down and Kawhi in line to play, the former is a good bet to go under his rebound prop as well: According to the on/off tool, Lowry is averaging 4.0 rebounds per 36 minutes with Leonard on the floor.
Lowry is averaging only 4.0 rebounds in 34.0 minutes per game against Orlando this season, and the Magic are allowing the third-fewest rebounds per game to point guards over the past two weeks, per Hashtag Basketball.
The 13th-year point guard has failed to clear four rebounds in 21-of-32 (65.7%) home games — with most of them coming before his recent playing time decrease — so this should have value up to -190.
Suns SG Devin Booker
THE PICK: Over 33.5 Points (-149)
Booker has jacked up 29.8 field-goal attempts over his past four games, averaging an absurd 47.3 points per game over that span — it’s abundantly clear this man is gunning for a 50-point game every time he takes the floor.
Booker has scored at least 48 points in each of his past three games, so I’m betting on him continuing to do so until he proves otherwise.
I usually throw a few more prop picks in the Action Network App throughout the night as I do more research and lineup news trickles in, so be sure to follow me there, as well.