Raybon’s Favorite NBA Player Props for Monday: Avery Bradley Over/Under 12.5 Points?

Raybon’s Favorite NBA Player Props for Monday: Avery Bradley Over/Under 12.5 Points? article feature image
Credit:

David Richard-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Memphis Grizzlies guard Avery Bradley (0) and head coach J.B. Bickerstaff

  • Chris Raybon breaks down player prop bets for Monday's slate of NBA matchups.
  • To find value, Raybon is targeting Memphis Grizzlies SG Avery Bradley and Phoenix Suns SF Josh Jackson.

Monday’s top NBA player props come from the following two games:

  • Phoenix Suns at Miami Heat: 7:30 p.m. ET on FS-SW
  • Los Angeles Lakers at Memphis Grizzlies: 8 p.m. ET on SportsNet LA

As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10.

Grizzlies SG Avery Bradley

The Pick: Under 12.5 Points (-130)

As Matt LaMarca pointed out yesterday, betting unders is scary. But that’s precisely what tends to make them profitable, as the public likes to hammer overs, so even a low-hanging under may not experience as much of a line move.

As a player primarily relied upon for his defense, Bradley going under 12.5 points qualifies as “low-hanging.” He’s actually gone over 15 points in three of five games since joining the Grizzlies, which screams regression with a bullhorn.

Despite averaging 29.9 minutes er game overall this season — 1.4 more than our NBA Player Models have him projected for tonight — Bradley has posted just 8.8 points per game. In 54 games, he’s been under 12 points 40 times, or 74% of the time.

Foul trouble could also impact a defense-first player’s minutes. We’ve seen him pick up at least four in each of his past two games, a trend that could continue against the Lakers, as he’s likely to be tasked with defending Lebron James or Brandon Ingram, both of whom are in the top 24 in free throw attempts per game.

Suns SF Josh Jackson

The Pick: Under 13.5 Points (-125)

Even with T.J. Warren (ankle) continuing to miss time, Jackson has begun to lose playing time down the stretch. Jackson has failed to crack 30 minutes in each of his past three games, and didn’t even log 16 in two of his past three.

Those perimeter minutes are instead going to Kelly Oubre, who has played 30-plus in three straight, and Mikal Bridges, who has continued to receive more minutes than Jackson after the All-Star break despite coming off the bench.

That means Jackson will likely have to earn his minutes with strong play on a game-by-game basis, something the odds are against. On the road this season, Jackson shooting percentages from the field (39.9%) and beyond the arc (22.1%) pale in comparison to his marks in the familiar confines of Talking Stick Resort Arena (43.5% and 35.8%, respectively).

Jackson is averaging 0.43 points per minute on the road, meaning that, on average, he would need 32.6 minutes to score 14 points; our NBA Player Models have him projected for only 16 minutes tonight.

Under 13.5 has a 10 Bet Quality Rating in the props tool, a rating which has produced a 57% win rate since the beginning of the season. Under 13.5 is worth a look up to -170, and at traditional -110 juice, it’s in play as long as it doesn’t drop below 11.5 points.

Suns SF Josh Jackson

The Pick: Under 4.5 Rebounds (-135)

When betting unders based on a projected decrease in playing time, I usually like to double up because the odds of going 2-for-2 are higher than usual, and the odds are going 0-for-2 are slim.

Jackson is averaging 4.0 rebounds per game on the road this season, and according to the props tool, this prop is 36% off from his projected output. The under is worth playing up to -160.