Raybon’s Favorite NBA Props for Monday: Will Klay Thompson Grab 4 Rebounds?

Raybon’s Favorite NBA Props for Monday: Will Klay Thompson Grab 4 Rebounds? article feature image
Credit:

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Golden State Warriors guard Klay Thompson (11)

  • Chris Raybon breaks down his favorite NBA player props for Monday night.
  • Props include rebound totals for Bucks F Khris Middleton and Warriors SG Klay Thompson.

The NBA player props highlighted below are from the two playoff games on Monday night:

  • Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics: 7 p.m. ET on TNT
  • Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets: 9:30 p.m. ET on TNT

As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 4:15 p.m. ET. View live odds here.

Bucks F Khris Middleton

THE PICK: Over 5.5 Rebounds (-135)

After Middleton grabbed just 22 boards in his team’s four-game disposal of the Pistons in Round 1, he’s already up to 21 boards through three games in Round 2 against the Celtics. The difference? Minutes. Coach Mike Budenholzer needed Middleton for only 29.6 minutes per game against Detroit but has deployed him for 35.0 a night versus Boston.

On paper at least, Game 4 projects to be a tightly-contested affair. As such, our NBA Player Models have Middleton projected for 37 minutes tonight. He averaged 6.0 boards in 31.1 minutes during the regular season with no drop-off on the road and would project for over seven if he hits his minutes projection.

Some books list this at 6 instead of 5.5, but there’s still value: Excluding the games in which Middleton came down with exactly six boards during the regular season, his rate of grabbing 7-plus (47.6%) adjusted for his projected minutes increase (19.0%) equates to a 56.6% likelihood he will go over 6 if the bet doesn’t push, meaning over 6 should have value up to -130 (though it would turn from a 10-rated prop to a 9-rated prop beyond standard juice).

Warriors SG Klay Thompson

THE PICK: Over 3.5 Rebounds (+100)

From a rebounding perspective, Klay is the only Warrior who benefits from the switch to the Hampton’s 5 lineup: In the 300 minutes that he has shared the floor with Steph, KD, Iggy and Draymond, Klay is averaging 4.4 rebounds per 36 minutes, a 10% increase over all other lineup configurations he’s been a part of, per our NBA On/Off tool.

Klay is averaging an even 5.0 rebounds per game in 39.2 minutes across seven combined regular and postseason games against the Rockets this season. He has grabbed at least four boards in six of those games and at least five in four of them, so the over should have value up to 4.0 (-135).

I usually throw a few more prop picks in the Action Network App throughout the night as I do more research and lineup news trickles in, so be sure to follow me on there if you aren’t already.