Raybon’s Favorite NBA Props for Thursday: Paul Millsap Over/Under 12.5 Points?

Raybon’s Favorite NBA Props for Thursday: Paul Millsap Over/Under 12.5 Points? article feature image

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Denver Nuggets power forward Paul Millsap (4)

  • Chris Raybon breaks down his favorite NBA player props for Thursday night.
  • Props include Jazz SF Joe Ingles' points and Nuggets PF Paul Millsap's points.

The two NBA player props highlighted below are from the two West Coast games tonight:

  • Minnesota Timberwolves at Utah Jazz: 9 p.m. ET
  • Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets: 10:30 p.m. ET

As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 6 p.m. ET. View live odds here.

Jazz SF Joe Ingles 

THE PICK: Over 11.5 Points (-114)

Banging the over on this prop takes advantage Ingles’ drastic home/road splits this season:

  • Home: 13.1 PPG | 40.2 3P% | 57.8 TS% | 18.0 USG% | 31.9 MPG
  • Road: 10.6 PPG | 33.3 3P% | 54.8 TS% | 16.3 USG% | 31.6 MPG

Ingles has dropped in at least 12 points in 35 of his 62 games played (56.5%), but that rate increases ever so slightly to 57.6% in Salt Lake City.

Utah is on the second night of a back-to-back, but the 31-year-old swingman hasn’t experienced a dip in playing time in such situations, averaging 31.3 minutes per game.

In three prior meetings with Minnesota, Ingles has gone over 11.5 each time, with point totals of 15 (Jan. 27), 12 (Jan. 25), and 13 (Oct. 31), and I’d bet on him making it a perfect 4-for-4 up to -135.

Nuggets PF Paul Millsap

THE PICK: Over 12.5 Points (-130)

Trillsap is also much more productive — and assertive — in front of his home crowd:

  • Home: 14.6 PPG | 43.7 3P% | 62.7 TS% | 21.0 USG% | 26.4 MPG
  • Road: 10.1 PPG | 26.9 3P% | 50.6 TS% | 18.6 USG% | 26.8 MPG

The 13th-year vet’s minutes are up to 30.7 in nine games since the break, and our NBA Player Models have him projected at 31.5 tonight, so he should have no problem clearing this line even if the Nuggets make quick work of the tanking Mavs.

Millsap has gone over 12.5 points in 19 of 29 home games (65.5%) and over 13 in 17 of 29 (58.6%), so over 12.5 should have value up to -190 and over 13 up to -140.

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