Raybon’s Favorite NBA Prop for Thursday: Will Kawhi Leonard Grab 8 Rebounds?

Raybon’s Favorite NBA Prop for Thursday: Will Kawhi Leonard Grab 8 Rebounds? article feature image
Credit:

Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kawhi Leonard

  • Chris Raybon breaks down how he's betting Kawhi Leonard's rebound prop on Thursday.

The prop highlighted below is from the lone NBA playoff game on Thursday night:

  • Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers: 8 p.m. ET on ESPN

As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 6:30 p.m. ET. View live odds here.

Raptors SF Kawhi Leonard

THE PICK: Over 7.5 Rebounds (-114)

Apart from the fact that Kawhi seemingly has a whole new repertoire of on-court mannerisms and emotions that we rarely saw on display in San Antonio, one of the biggest changes in Toronto is his increased output on the glass. He averaged fewer than six rebounds a game in his final two years as a Spur, but pulled down 7.3 per game during this past regular season.

Across five regular-season and postseason games against the 76ers, Leonard is averaging 8.2 rebounds in 36.8 minutes (and the odds are he plays closer to 40 in what’s expected to be a close game tonight).

According to Hashtag Basketball, the 76ers are allowing 10.2 rebounds per game to small forwards over the past two weeks, which is barely fewer than they’re giving up to centers (11.3), and NBA Stats has Kawhi down for a team-leading 14.5 rebound chances per game so far in this series.

Our NBA Player Models have him projected for 9.7 boards in 39.5 minutes tonight, which should allow for some cushion even if he falls short of his projection. He’s grabbed 8-plus rebounds in 60% of the games in which he’s played at least 34 minutes, so this should have value up to the -150 range.

I got this at -114 and still see it available for that price at certain books, but at a line of -125 it’s still rated a perfect 10 in our props tool (59% win rate this season) with a 28% gap between projected and implied total.

I usually throw a few more prop picks in the Action Network App throughout the night as I do more research and lineup news trickles in, so be sure to follow me on there if you aren’t already.