Raybon’s Favorite NBA Prop for Thursday: Will George Hill Dish 3 Dimes?

Raybon’s Favorite NBA Prop for Thursday: Will George Hill Dish 3 Dimes? article feature image
Credit:

John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Milwaukee Bucks point guard George Hill (3)

  • Chris Raybon sees value on one NBA player prop in particular for Thursday night.
  • He breaks down how he is betting the over/under on the assists prop for Bucks backup PG George Hill.

The player prop highlighted below is for Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Thursday night:

As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 5 p.m. ET. View live odds here.

Bucks PG George Hill

THE PICK: Over 2.5 Assists (-112)

As I mentioned in our NBA DFS breakdown, Hill has outplayed Eric Bledsoe this series, averaging a 10.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 2.8 assists while shooting 52.0% from the field.

Bledsoe’s stat line is down at 8.5/4.3/4.0 on 24.4% shooting, and he received seven fewer minutes than Hill in Game 4, giving Hill a 28.9-28.2 edge in minutes per game in the series.

Hill is averaging 2.9 assists in 25.7 minutes per game in the postseason, and our NBA Player Models are projecting his minutes at 29.5, which tilts the odds in favor of him handing out at least three helpers.

Our props tool rates this prop a perfect 10 in bet quality (69% win rate this season) with a 24% difference between projected assists (3.2) and implied assists (2.6).

Hill has dished three assists in 7-of-13 postseason games, and after adjusting for his upward-trending minutes, the over should have value up to 2.5 (-160).

 

I usually throw a few more prop picks in the Action Network App throughout the night as I do more research and lineup news trickles in, so be sure to follow me there.