Raybon’s Favorite NBA Props for Tuesday: Will LaMarcus Aldridge Drop 23 Points?
Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: San Antonio Spurs center LaMarcus Aldridge (12, left) and Denver Nuggets forward Paul Millsap (4)
- Chris Raybon breaks down his favorite NBA player props for Tuesday night.
- Props include point totals for Magic F Jonathan Isaac and Spurs PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge.
The two NBA player props highlighted below are from the following two postseason matchups on Tuesday night:
- Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors: 8 p.m. ET on TNT
- San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets: 9 p.m. ET on NBA TV
As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 6:30 p.m. ET. View live odds here.
Magic PF Jonathan Isaac
THE PICK: Under 12.5 Points (-115)
This is my favorite type of situation to target in the playoffs: An inexperienced, low-usage role player on the road. The fact that sharp money is on the Raptors in a game they absolutely have to win is all the better.
In fact, the biggest risk with this prop is the same thing that makes it attractive: The Raptors almost certainly want Isaac, who shoots worse than average from the field overall (42.9%) and deep (32.3%), to be the one to beat them.
Still, Isaac scored only 11 points on 3-of-10 shooting in 40 minutes in Game 1, posting a minuscule 10.9% usage rate. And now the Magic are implied to score just 100.5 points in Game 2 — well below their season average of 107.3. (I’m actually targeting the entire Magic starting unit, hoping to go at least 3-2 in what has the looks of a letdown spot; follow me in the Action Network App if you’re interested in seeing how that turns out.)
Even at a juiced-up Under 12.5 (-150), this prop rates as a 9 in Bet Quality, and points props rated as such have posted a 61%/38%/1% win/loss/push rate this season.
There’s also more than a basket of cushion in case the line drops, as our NBA Player Models have Isaac projected for 9.6 points.
Spurs PF LaMarcus Aldridge
THE PICK: Under 22.5 Points (-115)
The Spurs averaged 111.7 points and a combined total of 221.7 during the regular season, but tonight’s Spurs-Nuggets affair has an over/under of 210 with the Spurs implied to score just 101.5 points (sharp money is on Denver).
Ironically, the more the Spurs work the ball in to Aldridge on the block, the more it slows the game down, and the more efficient he has to be to hit the over on this prop. (As with the Magic, I think there could be value on the under all-around on San Antonio due to the likely pace of the game and also it being a potential letdown spot.)
Efficiency has proven to be elusive for Aldridge outside of San Antonio, however: He’s averaging 19.6 points per game on 49.9% shooting on the road compared to 23.0 points on 53.5% shooting at home. In Game 1, Paul Millsap, Nikola Jokic and Co. held Aldridge to 15 points on 6-of-19 (31.6%) shooting.
This prop is also rated a 9 in Bet Quality, and there’s nearly two baskets of cushion between the line and Aldridge’s projection in our models (18.6).
I usually throw a few more prop picks in the Action Network App throughout the night as I do more research and lineup news trickles in, so be sure to follow me there, as well.