Raybon’s Favorite NBA Props for Tuesday: Will LaMarcus Aldridge Drop 23 Points?
Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: San Antonio Spurs center LaMarcus Aldridge (12, left) and Denver Nuggets forward Paul Millsap (4)
- Chris Raybon breaks down his favorite NBA player props for Tuesday night.
- Props include point totals for Magic F Jonathan Isaac and Spurs PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge.
The two NBA player props highlighted below are from the following two postseason matchups on Tuesday night:
- Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors: 8 p.m. ET on TNT
- San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets: 9 p.m. ET on NBA TV
As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 6:30 p.m. ET. View live odds here.
Magic PF Jonathan Isaac
THE PICK: Under 12.5 Points (-115)
This is my favorite type of situation to target in the playoffs: An inexperienced, low-usage role player on the road. The fact that sharp money is on the Raptors in a game they absolutely have to win is all the better.
In fact, the biggest risk with this prop is the same thing that makes it attractive: The Raptors almost certainly want Isaac, who shoots worse than average from the field overall (42.9%) and deep (32.3%), to be the one to beat them.
Still, Isaac scored only 11 points on 3-of-10 shooting in 40 minutes in Game 1, posting a minuscule 10.9% usage rate. And now the Magic are implied to score just 100.5 points in Game 2 — well below their season average of 107.3. (I’m actually targeting the entire Magic starting unit, hoping to go at least 3-2 in what has the looks of a letdown spot; follow me in the Action Network App if you’re interested in seeing how that turns out.)
Even at a juiced-up Under 12.5 (-150), this prop rates as a 9 in Bet Quality, and points props rated as such have posted a 61%/38%/1% win/loss/push rate this season.
There’s also more than a basket of cushion in case the line drops, as our NBA Player Models have Isaac projected for 9.6 points.