Raybon’s Favorite NBA Props for Tuesday: Will Al-Farouq Aminu Drop 11 Points?
Credit: Craig Mitchelldyer-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Portland Trail Blazers forward Al-Farouq Aminu (8)
- Chris Raybon breaks down his favorite NBA player props for Tuesday night.
- Props include point totals for Pistons PF Blake Griffin, Knicks SF Mario Hezonja, Knicks PG Damyean Dotson and Blazers PF Al-Farouq Aminu.
The four NBA player props highlighted below are from the following three games:
- Memphis Grizzlies at Detroit Pistons: 7 p.m. ET
- New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls: 8 p.m. ET
- Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers: 10:30 p.m. ET
As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 5:30 p.m. ET. View live odds here.
Pistons PF Blake Griffin
THE PICK: Under 24.5 Points (-115)
Griffin (knee, probable) will likely gut it out with Detroit trying to hold on to the 8-seed, but he struggled with the injury last game, scoring 16 points on 5-of-18 shooting.
Even if Griffin is healthy, his scoring average has dipped from 26.3 points per game before the All-Star break to 20.9 since, and both Detroit and Memphis are in the bottom-eight in pace over the past three weeks, per NBA Stats.
Griffin has failed to score 24 points in 60% of his games since the All-Star break, so this prop should have value down to Under 23.5 (-150).
Knicks SF Mario Hezonja
THE PICK: Over 17.5 Points (-114)
We’re at the point in the season when Hezonja is worthy of DFS headlines, but regardless of how ridiculous that sounds, the man has been cooking.
Hezonja is averaging 23.7 points in 35.7 minutes per game over his past three, and our NBA Player Models have him projected to play 38.5 tonight for the shorthanded Knicks against an equally shorthanded Chicago Bull(s–t)s team that is likely to offer little resistance.
This prop is rated a 9 in Bet Quality by our props tool, and points props rated as such have posted a smooth 61%/38%/1% win/loss/push rate since the start of the season.
Knicks PG Damyean Dotson
THE PICK: Under 13.5 Points (-110)
The one spot the Knicks have a couple of able bodies available in relief is at point guard with Dennis Smith Jr. and John Jenkins, so Dotson’s minutes floor is a bit lower than Hezonja’s.
As a result of that and the fact that Dotson poured in 18 points against the Bulls on April 1, this prop is a tad high. His outburst against Chicago came on a fluky 6-of-7 shooting from 3-point range, but he hasn’t hit double figures in three games since, nor did he in the two games prior.
This prop is also rated a 9 by our props tool.
Blazers PF Al-Farouq Aminu
THE PICK: Under 10.5 Points (-114)
Aminu is coming off back-to-back double-doubles against the Nuggets: 12 points and 14 rebounds on April 5 and 23 points and 11 rebounds on April 7. But especially with C.J. McCollum back, Aminu unlikely to sustain that pace in a potential blowout spot against the Lakers.
According to our NBA On/Off tool, Aminu’s scoring average dips by 7% with McCollum and Damian Lillard both on the floor this season. It also drops by 1.4 points on the road compared to at home.
Aminu has cracked 11 points in just 15-of-40 (37.5%) road games this season and has failed to reach double digits 55% of the time on the road, so this should have value down to Under 9.5 (-122).
I usually throw a few more prop picks in the Action Network App throughout the night as I do more research and lineup news trickles in, so be sure to follow me there, as well.