Raybon’s Favorite NBA Props for Tuesday: Will Gary Harris Grab 3 Rebounds?
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Denver Nuggets guard Gary Harris (14)
- Chris Raybon breaks down his favorite NBA player props for Tuesday night.
- The props include rebound totals for Raptors SG Danny Green and Nuggets SG Gary Harris.
The two NBA player props highlighted below are from the two playoff games Tuesday night:
- Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors: 8 p.m. ET (TNT)
- Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets: 10:30 p.m. ET (TNT)
As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 1:30 p.m. ET. View live odds here.
Raptors SG Danny Green
THE PICK: Over 3.5 Rebounds (-130)
Green is averaging 4.3 rebounds on 8.5 rebound chances in 34.5 minutes per game during this series, according to NBA Stats. Our NBA Player Models have him projected for 34 minutes tonight, so he should be able to grab at least four boards.
During the regular season he grabbed four-plus boards in 57.6% of his games despite averaging only 27.5 minutes, and excluding the games in which he finished with exactly four, he would project to go over 55% of the time after accounting for his postseason bump in minutes, so the over should have value up to 4.0 (-125).
At 3.5 (-130), the over is rated as a 10 in Bet Quality by our props tool (59% win rate this season) with a 23% difference between projected and implied total.
Nuggets SG Gary Harris
THE PICK: Over 2.5 Rebounds (-150)
After averaging 2.8 rebounds on 5.5 chances in 28.8 minutes during the regular season, Harris is up to 4.3 on 9.8 chances in this series against Portland, per NBA Stats. He’s been over 2.5 in all four games of the series and 9-of-11 playoff games overall, so over 2.5 should have value no matter the juice.
Random side note: As I mentioned in our NBA DFS Breakdown, Harris has a strange thing going over the last three games where his points and rebounds increase by one every game while his assists decrease by one. I don’t think I’ve ever seen anything like it:
I wouldn’t bet over 3.5 on this, though: He was able to achieve that just 18 times in 57 regular season games (31.6%), and even after accounting for his minutes bump, that line would be more or less correct; our projection for him tonight is 3.3.
I usually throw a few more prop picks in the Action Network App throughout the night as I do more research and lineup news trickles in, so be sure to follow me on there if you aren’t already.