Raybon: How to Bet NBA Player Props on the Last Day of the Season
Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: San Antonio Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich and Miami Heat shooting guard Dwyane Wade (left)
- Chris Raybon breaks down a profitable approach to betting NBA player props on the last day of the regular season.
- The strategy involves seeking out a specific type of prop that tends to be undervalued due to the inherent uncertainty stemming from the season's final day.
As it stands less than two hours before tip on the final day of the regular season, most books haven’t posted props due to the uncertainty surrounding playing time — our NBA Player Props tool contains props from only six teams as of this writing (Charlotte, Detroit, Memphis, Oklahoma City, Orlando, and San Antonio).
Since none of the props currently listed qualify as a “favorite” of mine, and since your sportsbook of choice may not have some of those props listed anyway, we’re going to do this a little different tonight.
I’m going to put you on to a tip that applies specifically to the last day of the season, which you can then use to pick from among whichever props your book is listing for tonight’s action.
The tip is pretty simple…
Bet the under on points props
The average bettor tends to bet more overs than unders across all sports and bet types, so there’s usually a slight edge to be had in betting unders regardless, but this is especially true for NBA points props on the last day of the season.
Here’s the win-loss record for points props in our props tool on the final day of last season (April 11, 2018) based on whether it recommended the over or the under:
- Over: 7-10 (41.1%)
- Under: 20-13 (60.6%)
This means that overall, the unders for points props listed in the tool went 30-20 (60.0%). Remove the two 10-rated overs and that record improves to 30-18 (62.5%).
A slightly more profitable strategy is to bet the unders strictly for players on the road, which hit at a 64.0% clip.
What makes this strategy work?
Most books are only listing props for players in relatively predictable situations on the last day of the season, but even in those situations, the inherent unpredictability that comes with Game 82 generally favors the under.
Many coaches tend to want to empty the bench in this spot if they can, so even in meaningful games, starters may end up getting pulled early.
And if a game is more meaningful to one team than the other, starters could get pulled due to a blowout anyway. There’s also the fact that the last day of the season tends to feature a number of teams on the second night of a back-to-back.
And mostly listing props for players in relatively predictable situations generally means players with the highest expectations — since books know the average bettor like to bet overs, they aren’t going to list props for players that could easily surpass their median expectation with a few extra minutes of playing time.
Even though it’s not the best night for props, I’ll throw any that I end up betting tonight in Action Network App, so be sure to follow me there if you’re looking for specific plays.