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Raybon: How to Bet NBA Player Props on the Last Day of the Season

Credit:

Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: San Antonio Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich and Miami Heat shooting guard Dwyane Wade (left)

  • Chris Raybon breaks down a profitable approach to betting NBA player props on the last day of the regular season.
  • The strategy involves seeking out a specific type of prop that tends to be undervalued due to the inherent uncertainty stemming from the season's final day.

As it stands less than two hours before tip on the final day of the regular season, most books haven’t posted props due to the uncertainty surrounding playing time — our NBA Player Props tool contains props from only six teams as of this writing (Charlotte, Detroit, Memphis, Oklahoma City, Orlando, and San Antonio).

Since none of the props currently listed qualify as a “favorite” of mine, and since your sportsbook of choice may not have some of those props listed anyway, we’re going to do this a little different tonight.

I’m going to put you on to a tip that applies specifically to the last day of the season, which you can then use to pick from among whichever props your book is listing for tonight’s action.

The tip is pretty simple…

Bet the under on points props

The average bettor tends to bet more overs than unders across all sports and bet types, so there’s usually a slight edge to be had in betting unders regardless, but this is especially true for NBA points props on the last day of the season.

Here’s the win-loss record for points props in our props tool on the final day of last season (April 11, 2018) based on whether it recommended the over or the under:

  • Over: 7-10 (41.1%)
  • Under: 20-13 (60.6%)

This means that overall, the unders for points props listed in the tool went 30-20 (60.0%). Remove the two 10-rated overs and that record improves to 30-18 (62.5%).

A slightly more profitable strategy is to bet the unders strictly for players on the road, which hit at a 64.0% clip.

What makes this strategy work?

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