Raybon’s Favorite NBA Props for Wednesday: Will Andrew Bogut Drop 9 Points?

Raybon’s Favorite NBA Props for Wednesday: Will Andrew Bogut Drop 9 Points? article feature image
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Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports/ Pictured: Golden State Warriors center Andrew Bogut (12)

  • Chris Raybon breaks down his favorite NBA player props for Wednesday night.
  • Props include Jazz SF Joe Ingles' points, rebounds, and assists plus Warriors C Andrew Bogut's points.

The four NBA player props highlighted below are from the two playoff Game 5s Wednesday night:

  • Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets: 8 p.m. ET on TNT
  • Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors: 10:30 p.m. ET on TNT

As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 6:15 p.m. ET. View live odds here.

Jazz SF Joe Ingles

THE PICKS:  Under 10.5 Points, Under 4.5 Rebounds (-125), Under 5.5 Assists (-130)

I’m going all-in on Ingles unders, hoping to hit at least 2-of-3. Why? He’s been the worst player on the floor among both teams’ starters — he’s averaging just 5.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 4.0 assists in 29.6 minutes — and he’s losing playing time because of it.

Jazz coach Quin Synder has played Ingles fewer minutes in each subsequent game as the series has progressed (33 in Game 1, then 32, 31, and 23), including precisely zero minutes in Utah’s 31-12 fourth-quarter smackdown of Houston Monday to force a Game 5.

Someone has to come out for ace defender Royce O’Neale, who has played 33.1 minutes per game over the last two, and the most logical choice at this point is Ingles. He’s not taking or making shots at his usual rates, and his rebound and assist opportunities have decreased as well:

  • FGM-FGA (FG%): 4.4-9.8 (44.8%) Reg | 2.0-6.3 (32.3%) Post
  • Rebound Chances: 6.9 Reg | 6.5 Post (per NBA Stats)
  • Potential Assists: 10.3 Reg | 8.3 Post (per NBA Stats)

I’d bet the under on his points prop down to a line of 9.5 at standard juice, rebound prop down to 4.5 (-167), and assist prop down to 5 (-125).

Warriors C Andrew Bogut

THE PICK: Under 8.5 Points (-115)

Bogut is averaging 8.0 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 4.5 assists in two starts since DeMarcus Cousins blew out his quad, and his renaissance reminds me of those Foster’s “How to Speak Australian” beer commercials: Bogut. Boogie. Australian for Boogie.

Still, the 34-year-old Australian seven-footer’s points prop is too high. In seven combined regular and postseason starts with the Warriors this year, he is averaging 5.5 points in 20.1 minutes per game.

And if we look at his entire Warriors career dating back to his first stint with the team starting in 2012-13 and spanning 83 starts, he’s posting averages of 6.1 points in 23.9 minutes.

If Bogut drops nine or more points in Game 5, it would be his first time scoring that many since June 2, 2016 in Game 1 of Golden State’s now infamous blown 3-1 series lead in the NBA Finals. I’d play the under down to 7.5 (-135).

 

I usually throw a few more prop picks in the Action Network App throughout the night as I do more research and lineup news trickles in, so be sure to follow me on there if you aren’t already.

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