Raybon’s Favorite NBA Player Props for Wednesday: Justice Winslow Over/Under 13.5 Points?

Raybon’s Favorite NBA Player Props for Wednesday: Justice Winslow Over/Under 13.5 Points? article feature image

Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Miami Heat forward Justice Winslow (20),

  • Chris Raybon breaks down his favorite NBA player props for Wednesday.
  • Props include Heat F Justice Winslow's points, Celtics G Marcus Smart's 3-pointers and Grizzlies F Justin Holiday's points.

Wednesday’s top NBA player props come from the following three games:

  • Golden State Warriors at Miami Heat: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Portland Trail Blazers at Boston Celtics: 8 p.m. ET on ESPN
  • Chicago Bulls at Memphis Grizzlies:  8 p.m. ET

As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 4 p.m. ET.

Heat SF Justice Winslow

The Pick: Under 13.5 Points (-125)

This prop is slightly inflated probably due to Winslow putting up 22 against the Warriors back on Feb. 10, but the odds aren’t necessarily in favor of a repeat.

Winslow is returning from a two-game absence from a knee injury, and Goran Dragic is also back, which means Winslow won’t be playing with the ball in his hands as much. (James Johnson could be held out again, but the effect of Johnson on Winslow’s scoring splits has been negligible, according to our NBA On/Off tool.)

The Heat moneyline is +365 as of writing (see live odds here), implying that they have only a 21.5% chance to beat the Warriors, and Winslow’s points per game drop from 13.2 (in 30.1 minutes) in wins to 11.7 (in 29.4 minutes) in losses. Our NBA Player Models have him projected at 27.5 minutes tonight.

Winslow has put up 11 or fewer points in 25-of-39 (64.1%) games started this season, so under 13.5 should have value up to at least -150 (60% implied probability), while under 12.5 should have value up to at least -122 (55%).

Celtics SG Marcus Smart 

The Pick: Under 1.5 Made 3-Pointers (-105)

We should expect a better effort from the Celtics at home after they got handed a beatdown by the Raptors in Toronto on Tuesday night, but a quick turnaround against a Blazers defense that’s better than average at limiting opponents’ 3-point attempts put the odds against Smart knocking down a pair of triples.

The Blazers have allowed 30.0 attempts from beyond the arc per game, 1.6 below the league average and they’ve held shooting guards in particular to the fifth-fewest makes from 3 per game. Earlier this season, Smart attempted just one 3 (and three field goals total) in 22 scoreless minutes against the Blazers.

Regression to the mean is also working in the under’s favor, as Smart’s 35.5% mark from 3 this season is well above his career 30.5% clip.

Smart has finished with fewer than 1.5 threes in seven of his past 11 games and 34-of-60 (56.6%) overall, so there should be value on the under up to -130.

Grizzlies SF Justin Holiday

The Pick: Under 11.5 Points (-130)

Holiday continues to run cold with his new team, shooting 34.7% from the field and 28.1% from 3 while averaging 8.0 points in 28.5 minutes. To reach 12 points at that rate, he would need to play roughly 43 minutes — well above the 29.5 our NBA Player Models have him projected at. Combine that cold shooting with a team-low 15.89% usage projection in, as well as one of the lowest-totaled games on the board, and Holiday is likely to score fewer than 12 points for the sixth game in a row.

At under 11.5 (-130), our tool grades this prop with a Bet Quality Rating of 10, with a 7% cushion before it would be downgraded to a 9. Since the start of the season, bets rated a 10 have been good for a 56.5% win rate (390-369-21) while those rated a 9 have produced a 58.0% win rate (556-382-20).

Holiday has been under 11.5 points in 13-of-19 (68.4%) games and under 10.5 points in 12-of-19 (63.1%) games since joining Memphis. Even allowing for regression, under 11.5 should still have value up to -150, and under 10.5 should have value up to -122.