Friday’s Best NBA Player Props: Enes Kanter Over/Under 9.5 Rebounds?
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Boston Celtics center Enes Kanter (11).
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Friday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s eight games:
- Utah Jazz at Memphis Grizzlies: 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN
- Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Lakers: 10:30 p.m. ET
- Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors: 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
Let’s dive in.
Lakers C JaVale McGee
THE PICK: Under 6.5 rebounds (-139)
JaVale McGee is coming off a monster game against his former team, the Warriors, in which he put up 18 points and 17 rebounds. But don’t mistake that as some sort of McGee breakout. The truth is that JaVale simply played a lot of minutes in a blowout win against a bad team.
That was only the second time all season McGee played 18 or more minutes. He had 28 points and 26 rebounds combined in those two, and the Lakers won by 26 and 29 points. In JaVale’s other nine games, he’s averaged only 14 minutes, 6.4 points and 4.2 rebounds.
That’s right about where our model projects McGee: 4.2 rebounds. All you really need to fade here is a huge blowout win, which is certainly not a given at home against the Kings. McGee has gone under 6.5 rebounds in eight of those nine other low-minute games. Play this bet up to -150.
Grizzlies PG Ja Morant
THE PICK: Over 5.5 assists (+100)
Ja Morant has gotten off to quite a start to his NBA career. He’s averaging 18.3 points and 5.8 assists a game and just scored the game-winning bucket in Charlotte with under a second on the clock. He is almost certainly the Rookie of the Year leader after a month.
Morant entered the NBA as one of the best passing prospects in awhile and has immediately shown the goods. His 11 assists against the Hornets last time out are a career-high, and he also has two seven-assist games and one with nine.
If you look at Morant’s numbers, he’s recorded four or fewer assists in his four lowest-minute games. In the other six games, in which he’s averaged almost 30 minutes, Ja is at 7.5 dimes a game. Memphis has monitored Morant’s load closely, but with a day off yesterday and another tomorrow, he should be a full go. That makes this a nice play at +100, and our tool rates this a 10 out of 10. Play it up to -125 as needed.
Celtics C Enes Kanter
THE PICK: Under 9.5 rebounds (-115)
Enes Kanter signed with the Celtics this summer expecting to be the starting center, but an injury has derailed the start of his season. Kanter’s played only three games, and one of those was just six minutes in his return from injury.
Kanter has played almost exactly 25 minutes in his other two appearances, and the Celtics have a number of other options they play at center including Daniel Theis, Robert Williams and smaller options. It’s reasonable to expect that Kanter’s minutes are probably capped at 25, and he’s had only six and nine rebounds in those two games.
It’s not much data to go on, in fairness, and Kanter has averaged 10.4 boards in 25.1 minutes a game over the last two seasons. He’s always been a good rebounder. So why play this then?
Because there are just so many ways this can go under. Maybe Kanter’s minutes are limited as he returns from injury. Maybe the Celtics blow out the Warriors and don’t need to push Kanter. Maybe the Celtics are more egalitarian with their rebounding. It’s simply much harder to find reasons to believe Kanter will hit 10 rebounds and go over. Feel free to play this one all the way to -140.