Sunday’s Best NBA Player Props: Can Kawhi Overcome Tough Matchup?
Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: LA Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard
- Sunday's five-game NBA slate features three player prop bets offering value
- This piece will focus on Knicks G R.J. Barrett, Rockets G Danuel House, and Clippers F Kawhi Leonard
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Sunday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s five games:
- Sacramento Kings at New York Knicks: 6 p.m. ET
- Houston Rockets at Miami Heat: 6 p.m. ET
- Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Clippers: 9 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Knicks G R.J. Barrett
THE PICK: Over 4.0 assists (-149)
The Knicks are going to be extremely thin at the PG position today, which bodes well for Barrett’s assist upside. The Knicks played just eight players in their last contest, and Barrett finished second on the team with 39.1 minutes.
Barrett should also see more time as a traditional PG given the absences of Dennis Smith Jr. and Elfrid Payton. Barrett has increased his assist rate to 17.9% with both players off the court this season, and he posted an assist rate of 19.9% in his last game. He’s posted an assist rate of just 15.9% this season, so that’s a pretty drastic increase.
I’m buying Barrett for this shorthanded Knicks squad. I’d play this prop up to -175.
Rockets G Danuel House
THE PICK: Over 9.5 points (-121)
House has emerged as a key part of the Rockets’ rotation this season. He’s logged at least 28.6 minutes in each of his past four games, including at least 30.1 in three of them. He’s scored the ball well this season, averaging 12.6 points per game, and the Rockets are in a nice scoring spot against the Heat. Miami has played at the eighth-fastest pace this season, and Houston’s implied team total of 118.25 ranks first on the slate.
House has shot the ball well this season — he’s currently making 48.6% of his 3-point attempts — but he could still hit the over on his scoring prop even with some regression. That said, I’m only playing this prop up to -135.
Clippers F Kawhi Leonard
THE PICK: Over 26.5 points (-114)
I am very bullish on Leonard today for DFS and in the prop market. This is a great scheduling spot for the Clippers — they last played on Thursday and don’t play again until Wednesday, so there’s no reason for them to limit Kawhi.
He does have a difficult matchup vs. the Jazz, but Leonard is basically matchup-proof. The only thing that has been able to limit him this season has been a lack of minutes. He’s on pace to shatter his previous career-high in usage rate, and he’s averaging 35.3 points per 36 minutes this season.
I’m all in on Kawhi, and I’d play this prop up to -150.