Monday’s Best NBA Player Props: Will Eric Gordon Snap out of Slump vs. Pelicans?

Monday’s Best NBA Player Props: Will Eric Gordon Snap out of Slump vs. Pelicans? article feature image

Photo credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Eric Gordon

  • Monday's six-game NBA slate features three player prop bets offering value.
  • This piece will focus on Timberwolves SG Andrew Wiggins, Grizzlies PG Ja Morant and Rockets SG Eric Gordon.

Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post the best lines.

That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.

Odds as of Monday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.

As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:

  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)

Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.

Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s six games:

  • Minnesota Timberwolves at Detroit Pistons: 7 p.m. ET
  • Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Houston Rockets at New Orleans Pelicans: 8 p.m. ET

Let’s dive in.

Timberwolves SG Andrew Wiggins

THE PICK: Under 3.5 assists (-118)

Wiggins has been operating well as a distributor recently, handing out at least five assists in four of his past five games. That makes this an excellent opportunity to sell high on him. Wiggins has never been a good facilitator of the basketball, averaging 2.5 assists per game or fewer in each of his first five seasons.

The team could also get back Jeff Teague, who has missed the past three games. He’s currently questionable with an illness, and his return would be a massive hit to Wiggins’ assist potential. He’s seen his assist rate drop from 15.9% to 6.7% when sharing the court with Teague this season.

I’m generally willing to bet against Wiggins doing anything but scoring the ball and playing awful defense. I like the under tonight up to -175 if Teague is in and -125 if Teague is out.

Grizzlies PG Ja Morant

THE PICK: Over 5.5 assists (-114)

Morant got the night off for rest in the Grizzlies’ last game, but he’s expected to be back in the lineup tonight vs. the Spurs. Morant has averaged just 5.5 assists per game this season, but there are reasons to expect that number to increase moving forward.

For starters, he’s a phenomenal passer. He has the ability and vision to make passes that other guys just can’t:

Ja Morant's (10 AST) passing ability 👀

— Bleacher Report NBA (@BR_NBA) October 9, 2019

His playing time also figures to increase. He’s averaging just 27.5 minutes per game, but he’s played at least 28.3 minutes in every game that has been decided by 10 points or less. Unsurprisingly, his assist totals in those games have been strong (6.75 assists per game). As long as the Grizzlies can keep this game competitive — they’re currently 11-point underdogs on the road — this number is low.

I’m willing to bet on the Grizzlies and Morant in this spot and would play the over up to -135.

Rockets SG Eric Gordon

THE PICK: Under 13.5 points (-114)

Tonight’s game between the Rockets and Pelicans is expected to be loaded with scoring. The total on that game currently sits at 245 points, and the Rockets’ implied team total of 125.5 ranks first on the slate.

Still, Gordon has not been nearly the same player for the Rockets this season. He’s been under 13.5 points in seven of the eight games he’s played with both Russell Westbrook and James Harden. The Rockets have put up some gaudy point totals in those contests, so a strong performance from Gordon is not required for the team to have success offensively.

Gordon is definitely a positive regression candidate moving forward — he’s shot just 28.3% from the field and 25.4% from 3-point range — but he can see some positive regression and still hit the under on his current scoring prop. I would play it up to -130.

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