Thursday’s Best NBA Player Props: How to Play LaMarcus Aldridge’s, Dejounte Murray’s Rebounds
Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: LaMarcus Aldridge, Dejounte Murray
- We're eyeing three NBA player prop bets for Thursday night's slate.
- See our picks for LaMarcus Aldridge's and Dejounte Murray's rebound props below.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Thursday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from two of the slate’s three games:
- Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans: 9:30 p.m. ET on TNT
- San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Clippers: 10:30 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
Pelicans G Jrue Holiday
THE PICK: Under 5.5 rebounds (-167) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
This season hasn’t exactly gone according to plans for the Pelicans. Everyone knows about the Zion Williamson injury, but New Orleans billed Holiday as their star, and he’s been banged up, too. Holiday missed two games with a knee injury and has been pretty lackluster in the two games he did play, averaging just 10.5 points, four rebounds and seven assists.
Holiday is probable Thursday night, but it remains to be seen what his minutes load will look like. The Pelicans are home underdogs against a Nuggets team that plays at the league’s slowest pace and will look to their veteran continuity to control the pace and play their style.
Holiday could play more limited minutes in his return and might get fewer possessions when on the court, and that knee has been limiting his athleticism a bit. All of that adds up to limited rebounding opportunities, making this under a good bet. We project Holiday at 4.3 rebounds, and though this one’s already at -167, I’ll play it up to -190 if needed.
Spurs G Dejounte Murray
THE PICK: Over 5.5 rebounds (-122)
Murray is finally back, and he looks healthy and explosive in his return. He’s always a huge pest on defense, but he’s expanding his game in other ways this fall, too. Murray is scoring almost 15 points a game and even starting to shoot a bit, but one other surprise has been his rebounding totals.
He has seven, eight and 10 rebounds in his three games, and it’s no surprise since he’s often playing up a position and can use his athleticism to get to boards from the perimeter. Murray is especially raking on the defensive glass, where he’s grabbed 33.3% of the available rebounds this season. That number is bound to come down in time, but you can ride the wave for now.
Murray has covered this rebounding number easily in all five games, and there’s no real worry of a light load either as Gregg Popovich has already announced Murray will sit Friday but play against the Clippers.
Murray is a slam dunk at -122 and worth playing all the way to -175.
Spurs PF LaMarcus Aldridge
THE PICK: Under 9.5 rebounds (-110) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
One reason Murray’s rebounding is way up is because Aldridge’s rebounding numbers are down. Aldridge is gathering just 12.0% of the total rebounds while on the court, the lowest number of his career. He’s had single-digit rebounds in all three games, which puts him under 9.5 in all of them.
Aldridge has been doing it a long time, and it’s only natural for numbers to begin to slip with age. At 8.0 rebounds per game, that would be LMA’s lowest rebounding season since his first All-Star year in Portland in 2012.
If you’re going to bet on Murray grabbing a bunch of rebounds, he has to get them at someone’s expense right? Perhaps it’s worth grabbing both the Murray over and the Aldridge under together, both rated at 8 or higher in our Player Props tool.
I’ll play Aldridge up to -130.