Wednesday’s Best NBA Player Props: Will Paschall Shine vs. Rockets?
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Eric Paschall
- Several player props are offering value on tonight's 9-game NBA slate.
- We've got picks for Knicks G R.J. Barrett, Pacers F T.J. Warren, Warriors PF Eric Paschall, Rockets G Danuel House and 76ers PF Al Horford.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Wednesday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from four of the slate’s nine games:
- New York Knicks at Detroit Pistons: 7 p.m. ET
- Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers: 7 p.m. ET
- Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Philadelphia 76ers at Utah Jazz: 9 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
Knicks G R.J. Barrett
THE PICK: Over 3.5 assists (-159)
Barrett has struggled a bit as a distributor, averaging just 3.3 assists per game through his first seven contests. That said, the rookie is getting more opportunities with Elfrid Payton and Dennis Smith Jr. out of the lineup.
Barrett had nine potential assists in his last game per NBA.com, but his teammates were only able to convert that into three actual assists. He should see his assist numbers improve if his teammates see some positive shooting regression.
There has been some talk that he could see fewer minutes moving forward — he’s averaged a whopping 37.1 minutes to begin the season — but it seems unlikely that will happen with the team down their top-two PGs.
I’m banking on some progression from Barrett on today’s slate, and I’d be willing to play this prop up to -175.
Pacers F T.J. Warren
THE PICK: Over 17.5 points (-110)
Warren has his deficiencies as a player, but the one thing he can do is put the ball in the basket. He’s scored at least 19 points in four of his past five games, including at least 26 points in each of his past two. He’s shot the ball well in those contests — which is always concerning if you’re betting an over — but he could see some regression and still hit the over on his current prop.
It’ll be important to keep an eye on the injury report prior to this contest. Jeremy Lamb is currently doubtful, while Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis are questionable. If all three are ultimately ruled out, this prop becomes an absolute smash. Warren played more than 40 minutes with all three players out of the lineup in their last game and posted his second-highest usage rate of the season.
I’m locking this in now and hoping that the injury report is favorable for Warren. Even if it isn’t, he still has a chance to hit the over at his current number.
Warriors PF Eric Paschall
THE PICK: Over 6.5 rebounds (-125)
Paschall has been one of the one bring spots in a dismal season for the Warriors. He’s played well in an increased role recently, and he’s coming off 13 rebounds in his last game. He should continue to see more minutes with Draymond Green out of the lineup.
Paschall is in a nice spot today vs. the Houston Rockets. They’re playing at the second-fastest pace in the league, and they also rank just 25th in terms of team rebound rate. That’s a good combination for a lot of rebounds.
Paschall has hit the over on his current rebounding prop in just one previous game this season, but I still like his chances today. I like the over up to -150.
Rockets G Danuel House
THE PICK: Over 11.5 points (-113)
This might be my favorite prop of the day.
House has been a huge part of the Rockets’ rotation this season, logging at least 30.1 minutes in four of their past six games. That includes 36.5 minutes in his last game, which they played without Russell Westbrook. Westbrook will be back in the lineup today, but Eric Gordon has been ruled out with a hamstring injury. That should solidify a big role for House.
He’s also in an incredibly juicy spot vs. the Warriors, who have been abysmal defensively to start the season, ranking dead last in defensive efficiency. The Rockets are currently implied for 123.25 points, which is the top mark on the slate by a considerable margin.
House should see a bunch of minutes in the best game environment on the slate, so he shouldn’t need a great shooting night to hit the over on his current scoring prop. I like the over up to -150.
76ers PF Al Horford
THE PICK: Under 7.5 rebounds (-114)
Horford has averaged 7.7 rebounds per game this season, but that number seems a bit inflated. He’s already played three full games without Joel Embiid and a fourth where Embiid was ejected early. Unsurprisingly, Horford has seen a decrease in rebound numbers when sharing the court with Embiid:
- On court: 11.1% rebound rate
- Off court: 13.6% rebound rate
Horford is not exactly a dominant rebounder to begin with, so Embiid returning to the lineup tonight could put a damper on his production.
He also has a tough matchup on the glass. The Jazz’s numbers are mediocre through their first seven games, but they figure to improve as the season progresses. They were the top rebounding team in basketball last season.
There’s enough uncertainty here to make a play on the under reasonable. I like it up to -130.