Friday’s Best NBA Player Props & Betting Picks (Jan. 30): All in on Jonas Valanciunas
Pictured: Grizzlies C Jonas Valanciunas (17), Photo Credit: Joe Murphy-NBAE via Getty Images
- Friday's seven-game NBA slate features four player prop bets offering value.
- This piece will focus on Mavericks G Seth Curry, Grizzlies C Jonas Valanciunas, and Nuggets PF Jerami Grant.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Friday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s seven games:
- Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets: 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
- Memphis Grizzlies at New Orleans Pelicans: 8 p.m. ET
- Denver Nuggets at Milwaukee Bucks: 9 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
Mavericks SG Seth Curry
THE PICK: Over 13.5 points (-114) [Bet now at PointsBet. NJ only.]
Curry may not be the first name you think of with the Mavericks, but he’s going to have to carry a large workload with Luka Doncic out of the lineup. He’s seen a usage bump of +9.6% in four games without Doncic this season, resulting in a team-high usage rate of 27.7%.