Friday’s Best NBA Player Props & Betting Picks (Jan. 30): All in on Jonas Valanciunas

Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.

That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.

Odds as of Friday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.

As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:

• Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
• Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
• Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
• Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
• Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)

Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.

Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s seven games:

• Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets: 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
• Memphis Grizzlies at New Orleans Pelicans: 8 p.m. ET
• Denver Nuggets at Milwaukee Bucks: 9 p.m. ET

Let’s dive in.

Mavericks SG Seth Curry

THE PICK: Over 13.5 points (-114)[Bet now at PointsBet. NJ only.]

Curry may not be the first name you think of with the Mavericks, but he’s going to have to carry a large workload with Luka Doncic out of the lineup. He’s seen a usage bump of +9.6% in four games without Doncic this season, resulting in a team-high usage rate of 27.7%.

He’s only averaged 22.7 minutes in those contests, but he’s still been able to score an average of 14.5 points per game. He’s currently projected for over 32 minutes in the FantasyLabs NBA Models, so he has significant scoring upside.

He’s also in a phenomenal spot vs. the Rockets. They’ve played at the second-fastest pace this season, which makes this a significant pace-up spot for the Mavs. Their offense may not be as efficient with Doncic out of the lineup, but they should have more possessions to work with than usual.

Curry can fill it up when given the opportunity, and he should have plenty of opportunities today. I like the over up to -140.

Grizzlies C Jonas Valanciunas

THE PICKS: Over 18.5 points (-110) | Over 11.5 rebounds (-110)[Bet now at PointsBet. NJ only.]

I love Valanciunas. He’s an absolute monster in terms of scoring and rebounding efficiency, but the problem is he just doesn’t play a ton of minutes. He is averaging 14.9 points and 10.2 rebounds this season, but he’s done that over just 25.7 minutes per game.

Playing time shouldn’t be a problem today vs. the Pelicans. Jaren Jackson Jr. is suspended, and Brandon Clarke is doubtful. That really leaves no choice for the Grizzlies but to lean on Valanciunas for extended minutes. He’s played at least 30 minutes in seven games this season, and he’s averaged 18.6 points and 14.1 rebounds in those contests.

The Pelicans also represent an excellent matchup. They rank fourth in pace and 22nd in defensive efficiency, so Valanciunas should be able to make the most of his playing time.

I’m absolutely hammering the over on his current rebound prop, and I’d be willing to play it up to -160. The scoring prop is a bit dicier, but I still like it up to -130.

Nuggets PF Jerami Grant

THE PICK: Over 4.5 rebounds (-110)[Bet now at PointsBet. NJ only.]

It feels like Grant has been in the league for a decade, but somehow he’s just 25 years old. He’s had a nice season in his first year with the Nuggets, shooting a career-high 40.1% from 3-point range, and he has seen a nice uptick in playing time recently given the Nuggets’ injury situation.

He has averaged 34.0 minutes over his past seven games and 5.9 rebounds per game as a result. He should continue to see a bump in minutes with Jamal Murray, Paul Millsap, Mason Plumlee, and possibly Gary Harris out of the lineup tonight vs. the Bucks.

Grant has pulled down at least five boards in five of his past seven games, and he recorded four boards in the other two. This line is simply too low — even in a tough matchup vs. the Bucks — so I like it up to -125.