Saturday’s Best NBA Player Props: Betting Kyle Lowry Assists, More
Photo credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kyle Lowry
- Saturday's six-game NBA slate features three player prop bets offering value
- This piece will focus on Heat SG Dwyane Wade, Raptors PG Kyle Lowry, and 76ers PG Ben Simmons
Saturday’s best NBA player props focus on three of the slate’s six games:
- Miami Heat at New York Knicks: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Toronto Raptors at Chicago Bulls: 8 p.m. ET
- Philadelphia 76ers at Minnesota Timberwolves: 8 p.m. ET on NBATV
As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 4:45 p.m. ET. View live odds here.
Heat SG Dwyane Wade
The Pick: Over 3.5 rebounds (-140)
Wade is coming off just two rebounds in his last game, which is creating a bit of value with the over on his rebounding prop today vs. the Knicks. The Heat are pretty shorthanded at the moment, with Justise Winslow, Josh Richardson, and Rodney McGruder all ruled out for tonight’s contest.
That should result in a healthy amount of playing time for Wade, who is currently projected for 29.0 minutes in the FantasyLabs NBA Models.
Wade has always been a great rebounder for a guard — he’s averaged 4.7 rebounds per game during his career — and he’s averaged 3.8 rebounds in just 25.7 minutes per game this season. The Knicks rank just 25th in team rebound rate this season, so there’s a lot to like with Wade in this matchup.
This is a good time to buy low on Wade, and I like the over up to -160.
Raptors PG Kyle Lowry
The Pick: Under 7.5 assists (-116)
Lowry has averaged a career-high 8.8 assists per game this season, but there are reasons for pessimism with him on today’s slate. Kawhi Leonard has been ruled out for personal reasons, and Lowry has served as more of a scorer than a distributor in that situation recently.
Fred VanVleet has replaced Leonard when he’s been out of the lineup, and Lowry has seen his assist rate decrease by 3.8% when sharing the court with VanVleet this season.
Lowry has handed out six assists or fewer in four of his past five games, so I think there’s decent value with this line. I’d play the under up to -125.
76ers PG Ben Simmons
The Pick: Over 7.5 assists (-112)
The 76ers will be without Joel Embiid for at least the next three games, which increases the appeal for Simmons. He’s been asked to carry a big workload with Embiid out of the lineup since the acquisition of Tobias Harris on Feb. 8, leading the team with an average of 37.5 minutes per game. He’s increased his assist rate by 1.0% in those contests, and he’s averaged 8.2 assists per 36 minutes this season.
Simmons is also in a great spot vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves. They’ve been poor defensively this season, ranking just tied for 22nd in defensive efficiency, and the 76ers’ implied team total of 116.75 ranks first on the slate by a significant margin.
I like the idea of targeting Simmons with Embiid out of the lineup. I’d play the over up to -125.