Monday’s Best NBA Player Props & Betting Picks (Dec. 16): Will Duncan Robinson Take Advantage of Expanded Role?
Photo credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Duncan Robinson
- Monday's seven-game NBA slate features three player prop bets offering value.
- This piece will focus on Heat SF Duncan Robinson and Blazers SF Kent Bazemore.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Monday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from two of the slate’s seven games:
- Miami Heat at Memphis Grizzlies: 8 p.m. ET
- Portland Trail Blazers at Phoenix Suns: 9 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
Heat SF Duncan Robinson
THE PICKS: Over 11.5 points (-110) & Over 3.5 rebounds (-125)
Robinson is in a wonderful spot today for the Heat. For starters, they’re going to be pretty shorthanded. Goran Dragic, Justise Winslow, Dion Waiters and James Johnson will all miss this contest for one reason or another. Robinson has played at least 36.4 minutes in four of his past five games, and he should be looking at another large workload in this one.
Robinson is also in a wonderful spot vs. the Memphis Grizzlies. They rank fourth in pace and 21st in defensive efficiency, which should give him plenty of opportunities to rack up counting stats.
Both of these props are grading out as 10s in the Prop tool, so both are offering plenty of value. I like the over on the points prop up to -140 and the over on the rebound prop up to -150.
Blazers SF Kent Bazemore
THE PICK: Under 10.5 points (+100)
Bazemore has seen a nice spike in playing time recently, logging at least 30 minutes in two of his past three games. That said, his extra playing time hasn’t necessarily translated into more points. He’s scored nine points or fewer in each of his past three games, and he continues to shoot the ball poorly from the field. He’s shooting just 34.4% overall and 33.7% from 3-point range; his 42.7 effective FG% is the lowest mark since his rookie season.
Bazemore has scored in the single digits in 17 of his first 26 games, so I think there’s value in the under even with more playing time. I like it up to -115.