Monday’s Best NBA Player Props & Betting Picks (Jan. 13): Ride the Wave With Miles Bridges?
Brock Williams-Smith/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Miles Bridges (0) of the Charlotte Hornets.
- Monday's seven-game NBA slate features three player prop bets offering value.
- This piece will focus on 76ers PF/C Al Horford, Pistons PG Derrick Rose and Hornets SF Miles Bridges.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Monday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s seven games:
- Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers: 7 p.m. ET
- New Orleans Pelicans at Detroit Pistons: 7 p.m. ET
- Charlotte Hornets at Portland Trail Blazers: 10 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
76ers PF/C Al Horford
THE PICK: Over 3.5 assists (-141)
The 76ers are going to be without Joel Embiid for at least the next week or so, and Al Horford will be one of the players asked to step up in his absence.
He’s played at least 32.2 minutes in each of his past four games after a brief change in playing time, and he’s responded with at least four assists in each of his past three. Horford has increased his assist rate by +3.5% in games without Embiid this season, resulting in an average of 4.3 assists over 30.5 minutes of playing time.
Horford’s matchup vs. the Pacers is not ideal, but this line is too low with Embiid out of the lineup. I like the over up to -160.
Pistons PG Derrick Rose
THE PICK: Over 20.5 points (-114)
Rose has somewhat quietly put together an excellent season for the Pistons. He’s coming off the bench, but that hasn’t stopped him from carrying a large workload recently. He’s played at least 28.2 minutes in each of his past five games, and he’s scored at least 22 points in four of them.
There’s no reason to expect him to struggle today vs. the Pelicans. They’ve been one of the best matchups for scoring this season, ranking seventh in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency. Jrue Holiday is also doubtful to suit up, and he’s one of the only strong defenders on the team.
Rose has also benefited from a team-high usage bump in games without Blake Griffin, who is in jeopardy of missing the rest of the season with a knee injury.
I’m buying all the Rose stock I can get at the moment, including his odds to win Sixth Man of the Year at +1500. I like the over on his scoring prop for today’s contest up to -135.
Hornets SF Miles Bridges
THE PICK: Over 5.5 rebounds (-135)
Bridges’ playing time has been all over the place this season, but he appears to be locked into a big role at the moment. He’s played at least 32.7 minutes in four of his past five games, and he’s logged at least 35.1 minutes in three of them. Bridges has averaged 7.2 rebounds per game over that time frame, so this line doesn’t appear to reflect his increase in playing time.
He’s also in an excellent spot for rebounding vs. the Blazers. They have played significantly faster than the Hornets this season, and they also rank just 27th in team rebound rate.
Bridges should be able to grab at least six boards in this contest barring an unexpected reduction in playing time. I would play the over up to -150.