Monday’s Best NBA Player Props: Betting James Harden Assists, More

Monday’s Best NBA Player Props: Betting James Harden Assists, More article feature image
Credit:

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13).

  • Monday's five-game NBA slate features three player prop bets offering value.
  • This piece will focus on Pelicans forward Julius Randle, Celtics forward Gordon Hayward, and Rockets guard James Harden.

Monday’s best NBA player props focus on three of the slate’s five games:

  • New Orleans Pelicans at Memphis Grizzlies: 5:30 p.m. ET on TNT
  • Miami Heat at Boston Celtics: 6 p.m. ET
  • Houston Rockets at Philadelphia 76ers: 8 p.m. ET on TNT

As a reminder, you can dig deeper on these and many other prop bets by using our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool. It leverages our projections against five of the most popular online sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of one to 10.

Pelicans PF/C Julius Randle

The Pick: Over 10.5 rebounds (-130 at BetOnline)

The Pelicans will be without Anthony Davis for approximately the next week, which should give Randle a short-term boost in value. He’s been particularly effective from a rebounding perspective with Davis off the court, averaging 11.3 rebounds per 36 minutes. He has a tough matchup today vs. the Grizzlies, but he’s projected for 37 minutes in our NBA Models.

I think the over is providing some value on this prop, and it currently owns a Bet Quality of 9 in the Player Prop tool. It stops looking like a value around -150.

Celtics F Gordon Hayward

The Pick: Under 12 points (-115 at Bovada)

Hayward has had moments with the Celtics, but he’s still struggling to regain the form that made him an All Star with the Jazz. He’s averaged just 11.0 points in 26.3 minutes per game this season, and he’s played 25 minutes or less in each of his past six games. He’s been at eight points or fewer in four of his past five games and is in a tough spot today vs. the Miami Heat. They rank tied for seventh in defensive efficiency and just 22nd in pace.

This line seems a bit inflated given Hayward’s matchup and recent role. I like the under up to -135.

Rockets G James Harden

The Pick: Over 8.5 assists (-110 at Sportsbook.com)

Harden has been doing most of his damage as a scorer recently, but don’t sleep on his ability as a distributor. He’s increased his assist rate by 4.9% in games without Chris Paul this season, resulting in an average of 9.8 assists per game. Harden has handed out six assists or fewer in each of his past three games, but he handed out at least 12 in five of the prior seven. This seems like a prime time to buy low on him.

I like the idea of targeting Harden’s assist prop when most people are focused on his scoring. I’d play the over up to -130.