Monday’s Best NBA Player Props & Betting Picks (Jan. 6): Take the Value with Wendell Carter Jr.
Pictured: Bulls PF/C Wendell Carter Jr (34), Photo Credit: Nuccio DiNuzzo-Getty Images
- Monday's nine-game NBA slate features three player prop bets offering value.
- This piece will focus on Jazz SF Joe Ingles, Bulls PF/C Wendell Carter Jr., and Warriors SG Damion Lee.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Monday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s nine games:
- Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans: 8 p.m. ET
- Chicago Bulls at Dallas Mavericks: 8:30 p.m. ET
- Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings: 10 p.m. ET on NBATV
Let’s dive in.
Jazz SF Joe Ingles
THE PICK: Over 5.5 assists (+100)
The Jazz are in one of the best spots of the day vs. the Pelicans. They rank tied for fourth in pace and tied for 22nd in defensive efficiency, which should result in more successful offensive possessions than usual for the Jazz. They’re currently implied for 112.25 points, which represents a solid increase when compared to their season average (107.9).