Monday’s Best NBA Player Props & Betting Picks (Jan. 6): Take the Value with Wendell Carter Jr.
Pictured: Bulls PF/C Wendell Carter Jr (34), Photo Credit: Nuccio DiNuzzo-Getty Images
- Monday's nine-game NBA slate features three player prop bets offering value.
- This piece will focus on Jazz SF Joe Ingles, Bulls PF/C Wendell Carter Jr., and Warriors SG Damion Lee.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Monday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s nine games:
- Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans: 8 p.m. ET
- Chicago Bulls at Dallas Mavericks: 8:30 p.m. ET
- Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings: 10 p.m. ET on NBATV
Let’s dive in.
Jazz SF Joe Ingles
THE PICK: Over 5.5 assists (+100)
The Jazz are in one of the best spots of the day vs. the Pelicans. They rank tied for fourth in pace and tied for 22nd in defensive efficiency, which should result in more successful offensive possessions than usual for the Jazz. They’re currently implied for 112.25 points, which represents a solid increase when compared to their season average (107.9).
Ingles should be asked to fill his usual Swiss Army Knife role in this contest. He’s averaged 33.7 minutes per game in 13 games without Conley this season, and he’s increased his assist rate by +5.4% in those contests. Overall, he’s averaged 6.3 assists per game with Conley out of the lineup.
I love this combination of role and matchup, particularly at even money or better. I’d still be willing to play it up to -115.
Bulls PF/C Wendell Carter Jr.
THE PICK: Over 9.5 rebounds (-143)
Carter has been excellent on the glass recently, logging at least 10 boards in five of his past six games. He’s also seen a bump in playing time in his past two contests, playing at least 35.5 minutes in both. Carter has averaged 11.9 rebounds per 36 minutes this season, so this number is too low if he’s going to continue seeing that much playing time.
His role should be locked in if Lauri Markkanen is forced to miss today’s contest. He was originally listed as doubtful, but was upgraded to questionable despite missing shootaround. Carter has increased his rebound rate by a team-high 3.8% with Markkanen off the court this season, so this prop looks like a slam dunk if he’s unable to play.
Markkanen’s status is going to be important here, so make sure to monitor it using the new Labs Insiders tool. I’m willing to play the over on 9.5 up to -200 if he’s out of the lineup and -160 if he’s in.
Warriors SG Damion Lee
THE PICK: Over 2.5 assists (-139)
Lee offers significant upside today given the Warriors’ current injury situation. Draymond Green, Kevon Looney, and D’Angelo Russell will join Klay Thompson and Steph Curry on the sidelines for today’s contest vs. the Kings.
Lee should see significant playing time in this matchup – he’s currently projected for 32.6 minutes in the FantasyLabs NBA Models — and he’s increased his assist rate by 5.4% in games without all of the injured Warriors this season.
I’m willing to roll the dice on this prop given that it’s such a low number. It stops looking like a value around -150.