Wednesday’s Best NBA Player Props & Betting Picks (Jan. 29): Time to Sell High on Dame?
Cameron Browne-NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Blazers PG Damian Lillard (0),
- Wednesday's six-game NBA slate features three player prop bets providing value.
- This piece will focus on Spurs PG Patty Mills, Kings PG De'Aaron Fox, and Blazers PG Damian Lillard.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Wednesday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s six games:
- Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs: 8:30 p.m. ET
- Oklahoma City Thunder at Sacramento Kings: 10 p.m. ET
- Houston Rockets at Portland Trail Blazers: 10 p.m. ET on ESPN
Let’s dive in.
Spurs PG Patty Mills
THE PICK: Under 12 points (-114)
Mills is coming off a huge performance in his last game, scoring 25 points over 28.5 minutes. That said, I’m not expecting a repeat performance. LaMarcus Aldridge remains out of the lineup, but Mills still has to deal with a very crowded backcourt.
Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, and Bryn Forbes are all around to soak up minutes at point guard, and DeMar DeRozan will obviously handle a large workload as well. Mills had the hot hand in the last game — he shot 8-of-15 from the field and 6-of-12 from 3-point range — but he will likely see less minutes if he cools down tonight.
He also has to deal with a brutal matchup vs. the Jazz. They struggled a bit to start the season defensively, but they’ve been much better recently. They rank fifth in defensive efficiency over their past 10 games and third over their past five. The Spurs are currently implied for 108 points, which is well below their season average of 113.3.
I think this is an awesome opportunity to fade Mills. I like the under up to -135.
Kings PG De’Aaron Fox
THE PICK: Over 7.5 assists (+125)
Fox has been out or limited for much of this season, but he appears to be fully healthy at the moment. He’s coming off more than 37 minutes in his last contest, and he’s played at least 35.7 minutes in six of his past nine games. The only thing that has been able to stop him has been blowouts, which unfortunately has happened pretty frequently for the Kings this season.
Hopefully that won’t be an issue today vs. the Thunder given the 3.5-point spread. If Fox sees his normal compliment of minutes, this line is simply too low. He’s averaged 8.3 assists per 36 minutes this season, and he’s handed out at least eight assists in six of his past eight games.
I love this prop at +125, but I’d be willing to play it up to even money.
Blazers PG Damian Lillard
THE PICK: Under 31.5 points (+100)
Lillard has been scorching hot recently. He’s dropped at least 34 points in five straight games, and he’s gone for 50, 47, and 61 over his past three. He has a great matchup tonight vs. the Rockets, who have played at the second-fastest pace in the league, so is Lillard poised for another huge night?
Not so fast my friend. Lillard has done most of his damage recently with C.J. McCollum on the sidelines, but he returned in their last game. That didn’t stop him from dropping 50 on the Pacers, but it should slow his scoring down moving forward. Lillard has posted a usage rate of 35.1% with McCollum off the court this season — including a mark of 38.1% in four full games without McCollum — but that number drops to just 27.4% when sharing the court with him.
Lillard has also been way more efficient than usual recently, making 51.0% of his shots from the field at 46.3% of his shots from 3-point range over his past eight games. Overall, he’s due for some regression in his volume and efficiency, so I’m looking to sell high while I can.
Betting the under on a Lillard prop is obviously scary, but this line is definitely inflated. I like it up to -115.