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Wednesday’s Best NBA Player Props & Betting Picks (Jan. 29): Time to Sell High on Dame?

Credit:

Cameron Browne-NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Blazers PG Damian Lillard (0),

  • Wednesday's six-game NBA slate features three player prop bets providing value.
  • This piece will focus on Spurs PG Patty Mills, Kings PG De'Aaron Fox, and Blazers PG Damian Lillard.

Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.

That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.


Odds as of Wednesday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).


How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.

As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:

  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)

Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.

Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s six games:

  • Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs: 8:30 p.m. ET
  • Oklahoma City Thunder at Sacramento Kings: 10 p.m. ET
  • Houston Rockets at Portland Trail Blazers: 10 p.m. ET on ESPN

Let’s dive in.

Spurs PG Patty Mills

THE PICK: Under 12 points (-114)

Mills is coming off a huge performance in his last game, scoring 25 points over 28.5 minutes. That said, I’m not expecting a repeat performance. LaMarcus Aldridge remains out of the lineup, but Mills still has to deal with a very crowded backcourt.

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