Wednesday’s Best NBA Player Props: Betting Julius Randle Points, More
Pictured: Pelicans PF Julius Randle, Photo Credit: Catalina Fragoso-USA Today Sports
- Wednesday's 11-game slate features three NBA player props offering value.
- This piece will focus on 76ers C Joel Embiid, Pelicans PF/C Julius Randle and Heat G Tyler Johnson.
Wednesday’s best NBA player props focus on three of the slate’s 11 games:
- Brooklyn Nets at Philadelphia 76ers: 7 p.m. ET
- Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Pelicans: 8 p.m. ET on ESPN
- Miami Heat at Utah Jazz: 9 p.m. ET
As a reminder, you can dig deeper on these and many other prop bets by using our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool. It leverages our NBA projections against five of the most popular online sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of one to 10.
Let’s dive right in.
76ers C Joel Embiid
The Pick: Over 13.5 rebounds (-145 at Bovada)
This is a big number, but there are reasons to believe that Embiid can hit the over against Brooklyn.
For starters, the Nets have been crushed on the glass by opposing centers all season. They’re only 18th in team rebound rate, but they’ve already allowed 10 opponents to grab at least 15 boards in a game this season. Embiid averaged 13.5 rebounds per game against the Nets in the teams’ first two meetings of the season, but he saw just 32 minutes in one of those contests because the game turned into a blowout. As long as this game stays competitive, Embiid should be able to do some damage on the glass.
This prop is already juiced pretty high, but I still think it’s profitable to bet the over at the current number. I wouldn’t play it if it got higher than -160, though.
Pelicans PF/C Julius Randle
The Pick: Over 21.5 points (-115 at Bovada)
Randle has started each of the past five games and has averaged 34.3 minutes per game over that time frame. With that in mind, his scoring prop definitely feels a bit low for this matchup against the Thunder. He’s averaged 25.2 points per 36 minutes on the season, and the Thunder have played at the sixth-fastest pace this season.
Steven Adams also spent the majority of his time guarding Anthony Davis in the season’s first meeting between these two teams, which should result in Randle drawing an easier matchup.
Randle is a beast when given minutes and has scored at least 26 points in four of his past five games. I like the over up to -150.
Heat PG Tyler Johnson
The Pick: Under 12.5 points (-105 at Bovada)
Johnson picked up a DNP-CD in Miami’s last game but will reportedly play against Utah. That said, it seems likely that head coach Erik Spoelstra will exercise some caution with Johnson after missing time with a hip injury. He played in three straight games prior to sitting out on Monday, but averaged just 13.9 minutes and 8.0 points over that time frame.
Even if Johnson does see his normal workload, there’s no guarantee that he’ll hit the over in a slower-than-usual matchup.
This is the highest rated prop in the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool, and I’d play it up to -175.