Tuesday’s 3 Best NBA Player Prop Picks: Will Spencer Dinwiddie Stay Hot?
Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Spencer Dinwiddie
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from two of the slate’s six games:
- Atlanta Hawks at New York Knicks: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Brooklyn Nets at New Orleans Pelicans: 8:00 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
Knicks G Frank Ntilikina
THE PICK: Under 7.5 points (-134) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Frank Ntilikina isn’t exactly a scorer. He’s averaging 6.1 points a game this year, and that sadly is the highest rate of his career.
And lately, Ntilikina isn’t even playing that much. Ntilikina is averaging only 18 minutes a game in December, down in part because of the return of Elfrid Payton.
Ntilikina made exactly one field goal in five of those seven games, and he’s gone under this number in 16 of 25 games. Heck, he’s made zero or one field goal in 12 of them!
He can always get lucky and hit a couple threes, but especially with Payton playing more and taking more shots, I like the under. Our model rates this prop 10 out of 10 and makes this worth playing up to -165.
Nets PG Spencer Dinwiddie
THE PICK: Over 6.5 assists (-152) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Spencer Dinwiddie has been a monster with Kyrie Irving out. In 15 games without Irving, Dinwiddie is piling up 23.9 points and 7.4 assists a game. The Pelicans have the third-worst defense in the league and play at a super high tempo, so that should only help Dinwiddie have another huge game. This game has the highest total on the board.
Dinwiddie has gone over this assist number in nine of 15 starts. Our model projects another big game from him with 8.2 assists, and that means you can ride this prop to -170 as needed.
Pelicans G Jrue Holiday
THE PICK: Under 21.5 points (+100) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Jrue Holiday may get the Dinwiddie assignment tonight, so he’ll have his hands full on defense, but that’s always the case. Holiday has been a hot scorer of late and had 29 points last game, his second highest total of the season.
Holiday has scored 20 points in four of his last six, and that has bettors picking him to stay hot.
But he’s averaging only 19.8 points in that stretch and 19.4 on the season.
Holiday has only gone over this total nine times in 25 games. You’ll likely have to sweat out a close one, but it’s that +100 juice that makes this one so sweet. Play Holiday to -125 as needed.