Friday’s Best NBA Player Props: Betting Mike Conley Assists, More
Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Memphis Grizzlies guard Mike Conley (11), Sacramento Kings guard De’Aaron Fox (5).
- Friday's 10-game NBA slate features three player prop bets offering value
- This piece will focus on Grizzlies PG Mike Conley, Clippers F Tobias Harris, and Nuggets PF Paul Millsap
Friday’s best NBA player props focus on three of the slate’s 10 games:
- Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies: 8 p.m. ET
- Los Angeles Clippers at Chicago Bulls: 8 p.m. ET
- Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets: 9 p.m. ET
As a reminder, you can dig deeper on these and many other prop bets by using our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool. It leverages our projections against five of the most popular online sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of one to 10.
Grizzlies PG Mike Conley
The Pick: Over 5.5 assists (-143)
Conley has struggled a bit recently from an assist standpoint, handing out four dimes or fewer in four of his past five games.
That said, he’s averaged 6.0 assists per game this season and is in an elite spot today vs. the Sacramento Kings. They’ve played at the second-fastest pace this season, which makes this one of the most extreme pace-up spots that we’ve seen all year.
The Grizzlies’ implied team total of 107.25 doesn’t exactly jump off the page, but it represents an increase of roughly 6.5 points when compared to their season average (100.8).
This prop has a Bet Quality of 10 in the Player Prop tool, but it’s already juiced up pretty substantially. It stops looking like a value around -165.
Clippers PF Tobias Harris
The Pick: Over 7.5 rebounds (-149)
Harris has pulled down just seven boards in each of his past two games, but there are reasons for optimism with him on today’s slate.
For starters, he has an excellent matchup vs. the Chicago Bulls, who rank just 27th in team rebound rate. Harris has also increased his rebound rate with Danilo Gallinari off the court this season, resulting in an average of 9.6 rebounds per 36 minutes.
This is a great spot for Harris, so I’d play the over up to -170.
Nuggets PF Paul Millsap
The Pick: Over 12 points (+110)
The Nuggets will be without Nikola Jokic for tonight’s matchup vs. the Phoenix Suns, which means that someone is going to have to pick up the slack on the offensive end.
Paul Millsap is one of the top candidates, as he’s seen a massive usage bump of +7.6% with Jokic off the court. He’s only projected for 25 minutes in the FantasyLabs NBA Models, but that should give him enough playing time to potentially return value on this prop bet: He’s averaged 25.9 points per 36 minutes sans Jokic this season.
The matchup vs. the Suns is also tasty – they rank 28th in defensive efficiency — and the Nuggets’ implied team total of 120.25 ranks second on the slate.
Millsap is a former All-Star, so he should be up to the task of taking on a larger role. I like this prop at better than even money but would play it up to -115.