Friday’s Best NBA Player Props: Betting Trevor Ariza Points, More
- Friday's 10-game slate features four NBA player props offering value.
- This piece will focus on Wizards F Trevor Ariza, Cavaliers PG Collin Sexton, Hawks C Dewayne Dedmon and Clippers PF Montrezl Harrell.
Friday’s best NBA player props focus on four of the slate’s 10 games:
- Chicago Bulls at Washington Wizards: 7 p.m. ET
- Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat: 8 p.m. ET
- Atlanta Hawks at Minnesota Timberwolves: 8 p.m. ET
- Los Angeles Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers: 10:30 p.m. ET on NBATV
As a reminder, you can dig deeper on these and many other prop bets by using our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool. It leverages our projections against five of the most popular online sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of one to 10.
Wizards F Trevor Ariza
The Picks: Over 12.5 points; Over 5.5 rebounds (both -114 at BetOnline)
Ariza should be in line for a massive workload against the Bulls. The Wizards will likely be without John Wall and Markieff Morris, and Ariza is currently projected for 39 minutes in our Models.
Ariza has averaged 14.0 points and 6.0 rebounds as a member of the Wizards, and he’s increased his usage and rebound rates with Wall off the court.
Both of these props have a Bet Quality of 10 in our prop tool, and I’d play them both up to -165.
Cavaliers PG Collin Sexton
The Pick: Under 16.5 points (-135 at Sportsbook.com)
Sexton has seen a reduction in playing time as the Cavs get closer to full strength. He’s averaged only 29.3 minutes per game over his past seven games and has averaged just 11.3 points per game over that time frame. Sexton has also failed to eclipse 16.5 points in six of those contests.
He’s definitely due for some positive shooting regression — Sexton has shot just 33.7% from the field over his past seven games — but that already appears to be factored into the line. The Heat are also one of the league’s better defensive teams, ranking ninth in defensive efficiency, and the Cavs’ implied team total of 96.0 points is the lowest on the slate by a significant margin.
I’m expecting Sexton to bounce back eventually, but this doesn’t appear to be a great spot. I like the under up to -155.
Hawks C Dewayne Dedmon
The Pick: Over 11.5 points (-115 at Bovada)
Dedmon is far from a prolific scorer — he’s averaged just 5.8 points per game over his career — but I think he’s in a wonderful spot against the Timberwolves.
Alex Len remains out with a back injury, which should leave the majority of the center minutes for Dedmon. He played 37 minutes in his last game, and this line is too low if he’s going to continue to see that much playing time: He’s averaged 13.7 points per 36 minutes this season. Karl-Anthony Towns is also a subpar defender at center, ranking just 51st out of 60 centers in Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM).
This prop won’t get a lot of attention from casual bettors, but it’s one of my favorite of the day. I’d play it up to -160.
Clippers PF Montrezl Harrell
The Pick: Over 6.5 rebounds (-114 at BetOnline)
Harrell went through a rough stretch recently but turned things around in a big way in his last contest. He grabbed 10 rebounds in 27 minutes vs. the Sacramento Kings, and things shouldn’t be much more difficult for him today vs. the Los Angeles Lakers. They’ve grabbed just 48.9% of available rebounds with LeBron James off the floor this season, which would rank just 22nd in the league. They’ve also played at a faster pace with LeBron off the court, which should lead to a few extra shot attempts for both teams.
This is a good opportunity to buy low on Harrell, who has been excellent when given minutes this season. I like the over up to -140.